The peak oil crisis: a report to Australia's Senate

Last fall Australia's Senate, concerned about the future of the country's oil supply, directed a standing committee to, in essence, conduct an inquiry into peak oil. Two weeks ago the preliminary findings were issued as an interim report. A final report to the Australian Senate is to be released next month.

The major finding of the report is stark and simple. "In the Committee's view the possibility of a peak of conventional oil production before 2030, even if it is no more than a possibility, should be a matter of concern. Exactly when it occurs (which is now very uncertain) is not the important point. Australia should be planning for it now, as Sweden is doing with its plan to be oil free by 2020."

Other findings also show a sophisticated grasp of the issue. "If the price of oil declines in the next few years ... this does not dispose of peak oil concerns. Peak oil is a different and much longer term concern." In subsequent chapters, the report goes on to examine the social impact peak oil will have on Australia, and what can be done from the supply and the demand side to mitigate the situation.

(2006-09-21 23:49:40 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Oil dips below $60 as supplies build

cbc.ca :

The price of crude oil dipped on Wednesday below the $60 US-a-barrel level for the first time since March as supplies of heating oil continued to build. Crude futures for October delivery traded as low as $59.80 US before closing at $60.46 US in New York. Since July, oil prices have fallen by more than 20% as Mideast tensions eased, hurricanes avoided the Gulf of Mexico's oil and gas platforms and the global economy has showed signs of slowing growth.

The rapid and sustained sell-off in energy prices has caught many investors by surprise. A big U.S. hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, acknowledged this week that it lost billions of dollars recently when its traders bet that natural gas prices would rise. Instead, they hit a two-year low.

Analysts point out that, even at $60 US, oil prices are still high by historical standards.. Many market-watchers say oil will likely drop to somewhere in the 50s before finding a floor. Most do not see a return to $30 US oil.

(2006-09-21 14:33:25 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Meeting peak oil threat will cost $20 trillion : US

peakoil.com -> gulf-times.com :

The world needs to spend $1 trillion a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed. The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn't predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is "within the next five to 10 years."

To offset losses when world output peaks, "unconventional oil" will need to be rapidly developed, including heavy oil, oil sands, coal liquefaction, gas-to-liquids and enhanced oil recovery. Vehicle fuel efficiency will need to be improved. Hirsch, who is a senior energy programme adviser at research and engineering firm Science Applications International Corp, said the effort required is similar to "the race for the moon, or the mobilisation for World War II" and consumers can't rely on oil companies alone to make the right decisions and investments.

- That was from the fellow who wrote "the Hirsch report", unofficially named after him. You can see that the math doesn't quite add up - if we need to spend $1 trillion a year for 20 years before the peak and the peak is due within 5-10 years, the start date is negative 10 to 15 years. Oops. $20 trillion in 1 year then. Right ...

Some peakoilers are concerned about "the Hirsch angle", which is pushing for "unconventional oil" which includes the environmentally-damaging tar sands and CTL/GTL technology. It has already started though - tar sands operations are in full swing and the US Air Force has flown a B-52 bomber using GTL fuel.

(2006-09-21 13:05:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Scientists shocked as Arctic polar route emerges

peakoil.com -> news.yahoo.com :

European scientists voiced shock as they showed pictures which showed Arctic ice cover had disappeared so much last month that a ship could sail unhindered from Europe's most northerly outpost to the North Pole itself. Perennial sea ice - thick ice that is normally present year-round and is not affected by the Arctic summer - had disappeared over an area bigger than the British Isles, ESA said.

The shrinkage of the Arctic icecap is viewed with alarm by scientists, as it appears to perturb important ocean currents elsewhere, notably the Gulf Stream, which gives western Europe its balmy climate. It also threaten animals such as polar bears and seals that depend on ice. There are geopolitical implications, too, as Canada, Russia and the United States jockey to claim rights over transpolar passages that open up within their newly ice-free waters.

(2006-09-21 12:44:47 SGT) [Env] Permalink

The Kremlin activates coal

peakoil.com -> kommersant.com :

The Russian presidential administration has developed a fuel strategy for Russian electricity. Kommersant has learned that it will not emphasize growing gas supplies, of which, experts say, there is already a 30-percent deficit, but coal. Thus, Russian authorities will convert domestic consumers to coal and heating oil, which will unavoidably lead to higher electricity prices, but guarantee that Gazprom meets its export plans.

Gas consumption is rising faster than foreseen by the state gas monopoly. It was predicted to rise by 1% this year, but the real figure is 4%. The domestic shortage of gas will increase. Industry analysts say that the new strategy has been developed with the interests of Gazprom, not Russian consumers, in mind. Troika Dialog analyst Valery Nesterov said that current conditions make it politically and economically more expedient to export natural gas than to supply to Russian consumers.

- First they were talking about nuclear and now they are talking about coal. Only two alternative choices for large scale, base-load electrical power.

(2006-09-21 08:34:12 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Motorola to buy Symbol Technologies for $3.9 billion

today.reuters.com :

Motorola said it agreed to buy Symbol Technologies for about $3.9 billion to boost sales of wireless handheld devices to corporate customers.

Symbol makes bar code scanners, such as those found in supermarkets, as well as radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags that store product information in tiny microchips that can be scanned to keep close track of inventory. Analysts said Symbol's scanners, RFID tags and rugged handheld computing devices would complement Motorola's computing systems for retail, transportation and health-care markets.

- More merger mania.

See also :

1. Merger mania

(2006-09-21 08:19:13 SGT) [Biz] Permalink Comments [1]

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