Thursday October 06, 2005

High oil prices eroding demand

reuters.com :

Soaring gasoline prices in the United States are beginning to erode demand for the fuel, cooling the American love affair with gas-guzzlers and pushing travelers toward public transportation and even bicycles.

U.S. fuel demand has fallen nearly 3% below last year's levels. Total oil products demand over the past four weeks averaged 19.9 million barrels per day, or 2.9% less than the same period last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The declines in fuel demand are playing out in the auto industry. SUV and truck sales for big U.S. automakers Ford and GM slumped in September while Japanese carmakers posted big gains in the U.S. market with their smaller vehicles.

- Looks like between supply disruptions, high prices and collapsing SUV sales, demand destruction for oil is starting to kick in. You could say, oil demand is inelastic - until it becomes a pain in the wallet.

See also :

1. Crude oil hits two-month low
2. Ford, GM SUV sales nosedive

(2005-10-06 16:36:53 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Singapore firms prone to fraud

todayonline.com :

Despite the recent spate of business scandals, Singapore companies remain ill-prepared to detect and prevent fraud, even lagging neighbours with less pristine records of corporate governance. 60% of firms here do not have a fraud management system, according to a survey of 40 local CFO'S and senior finance executives.

Having overseen recent high-profile investigations into China Aviation Oil, Accord Customer Care Solutions and Informatics Holdings, Mr Subramaniam Iyer, PwC partner in charge of the crisis management team, told Today that it was "scary" how basic audit functions were not undertaken.

- And people ask me why I am not interested in the local stock market? Heh. Actually, I am primarily turned off mostly by the archaic 1000-share-per-lot trading system and the lack of companies in the sectors I am interested in (no prizes for guessing). And I don't like the attitude of the market participants either - they either seem to be speculators looking to make a quick buck, or traders trying to churn the market.

(2005-10-06 14:05:11 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

ASPO newsletter #58 released

ASPO has released the Oct 2005 edition of its newsletter. The biggest news is that the forecast of the date of peak oil has been moved from 2007 to 2010 :

A detailed revision of the deepwater evaluation has been made on the basis of new information covering the world's fields ... this has an impact on the overall model, as illustrated in the Table on Page 2, shifting the peak of All Liquids from 2007 to 2010.

- As might be expected, the forummers have been having a field day with this announcement. Various views include the sarcastic kind - "hooray, we're saved!", some criticised Colin Campbell's track record to date, while others defended it by pointing out, rightly, that with incomplete data it's difficult to make any sort of a prediction.

My opinion is that ASPO is doing fine with what they're attempting to do, anyone else wants to say otherwise could go publish their own website, release a competing newsletter and let history be the judge of how better or worse they fare.

Well, more time to prepare then (perhaps). Anyway there's a whole bunch of factors at work - new discoveries, fields coming online, politics, war, upstream disruptions (rigs / refineries / pipelines / shipping), demand growth, demand destruction, impact of technology (affecting consumption, conversion, extraction, etc), and dozens more not even mentioned yet. Anyone attempting to make a public prediction of the Peak Oil date has got to be either foolish or courageous - or perhaps a little bit of both :)

(2005-10-06 13:55:22 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Most popular blog postings on lowem.log :

1. Singapore SIBOR interest rates fall to 1.5%, lowest since Dec 2004
2. 2009 Honda Global Small Hybrid details released : bigger than Jazz/Fit, smaller than Civic
3. Singapore : Inflation rate could push past 6% in Q1 2008
4. Singapore SIBOR rate fell to 1.25% in Apr 2008, lowest since Aug 2004
5. Fuel prices seen stoking Malaysia inflation in 2008
6. Singapore CPI inflation rate for May 2008 continues at 26-year high of 7.5%
7. Singapore CPI inflation hits 6.6% in Jan 2008 - a new 25-year record high
8. Singapore SIBOR rate falls to 1.31%, lowest since Nov 2004

Featured articles on lowem.log :

1. ABC Guide to Beating Inflation in Singapore and Elsewhere
2. Singapore inflation rate hits new 26-year high of 7.5% in Apr 2008
3. Hyper-inflation : early warning signs
4. Singapore hyperinflation warning signs #2 : Cooking oil price up 75%
5. Bread and inflation
6. Singapore M3 money supply growth vs STI stock index
7. Singapore SIBOR rate fell to 1.25% in Apr 2008, lowest since Aug 2004
8. Singapore : Inflation erodes away bank savings