Sunday July 31, 2005

The Hirsch Report

energybulletin.net :

Over the past few months controversy has raged over the timing of Peak Oil - the moment when global oil production will reach its all-time maximum and begin its inevitable descent. Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch ... and is as remarkable for its subsequent reception as for its content.

... here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent research company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors forecast "protracted economic hardship" for the United States and the rest of the world. It is a problem that deserves "immediate, serious attention."

Yet, half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to be found. For several months it was archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site ... on July 7 the report disappeared from that site. The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing the Hirsch report; however there is no projected date of release. When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public report, paid for and released by DOE NETL, and that it therefore could be reposted at will."

Project Censored is therefore posting the report in full at:
www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf

- Hmm, I wonder. Shades of Orwell ("Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia"), or shades of Murphy ("Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence")?

(2005-07-31 12:23:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

HondaJet

vtec.net -> aopa.org :

The question these days is not whether the Japanese automotive manufacturers will enter the general aviation market, but when. Toyota certified an aircraft variant of its Lexus automotive engine in the 1990s, but never put it into production. Toyota for a number of years flew a high-performance single-engine airplane in Southern California ... Honda and Continental Motors signed an agreement in 2003 to study the marketplace for a four-cylinder, liquid-cooled avgas engine designed by Honda. Meanwhile, in Greensboro, North Carolina, Honda R&D Americas has stealthily been flying the HondaJet, a new-generation light business jet powered by a pair of the new engines.

... Honda tends to enter markets only when it can produce a product that performs better and at a higher value than other products in that category. In fact, the stated goals for the HondaJet project are to develop a lightweight business jet with a larger cabin, lower fuel consumption, and higher speed than existing business jets. If the test results hold true, it appears to be on that path with the HondaJet. The company says the five- to six-seat airplane will cruise at 420 knots at 30,000 feet and fly as high as 41,000 feet while maintaining a cabin pressure of 8,000 feet. Each Honda HF118 turbofan engine produces 1,670 pounds of static thrust (lbst) at takeoff. Slightly smaller overall than the Cessna CJ1+, the HondaJet cruises 10 percent faster, has a cabin that is 30 percent larger, and has a range about 40 percent greater on about 14 percent less thrust.

Although no one at Honda will commit to a price - stressing once again that the company considers this a research project at this point - some in the company suggest the price would be in the $3 million-to-$4 million range, compared to a Cessna CJ that starts at about $4.1 million.

- Fans can expect no less from Honda (see the figures in bold) - equal or better performance while consuming less resources, more bang for your buck et al. Speaking of which, if you have a couple of million of bucks, or more like $4 million, you can sign up for the waiting list (if there's going to be one). Me, I'd be happy to be able to put in the $30-40K for downpayment on a 2006 Civic. Or maybe that should go into the emergency reserve funds. Or oil stocks *grin*. We'll see.

See also :

1. world.honda.com
2. peakoil.com -> airventure.org

(2005-07-31 11:14:23 SGT) [Tech] Permalink

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