How much oil do we really have?

As oil prices remain volatile the markets do their best to forecast future prices. Unfortunately this is not an easy task. While it may appear extraordinary to outsiders one of the main problems in the oil market is the reliability of basic statistics.

One of the major problems surrounding oil data is in reserves. These are the basins of crude oil that lie underground. They are either held by governments or the 'oil majors' like BP, ExxonMobil or Shell, or a combination of both. Many countries simply do not allow outsiders to audit the size of these fields.

Whilst it is obviously possible to add reserves by new field discoveries it can seem a perplexing situation to market makers. Kuwait for example still claim exactly the same reserve level as they had in 1985 despite pumping millions of barrels every day since then.

Nor are company estimates any better, with Shell forced to make four revisions downwards of its official reserves since 2002, losing around 4.8bn barrels and damaging its share price ...

(2005-07-17 19:24:49 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Dubai Dreams

I was watching a National Geographic Megastructures episode on the Burj al-Arab hotel in Dubai, when in between various interruptions, came upon this article, linked from one of my usual hangouts, peakoil.com :

At the top of the social pyramid, of course, are the al-Maktoums and their cousins who own every lucrative grain of sand in the sheikhdom. Next, the native 15% percent of the population ... constitutes a leisure class whose obedience to the dynasty is subsidized by income transfers, free education, and government jobs. A step below, are the pampered mercenaries: 150,000-or-so British ex-pats, along with other European, Lebanese, and Indian managers and professionals, who take full advantage of their air-conditioned affluence and two-months of overseas leave every summer.

However, South Asian contract laborers, legally bound to a single employer and subject to totalitarian social controls, make up the great mass of the population. Dubai lifestyles are attended by vast numbers of Filipina, Sri Lankan, and Indian maids, while the building boom is carried on the shoulders of an army of poorly paid Pakistanis and Indians working twelve-hour shifts, six and half days a week, in the blast-furnace desert heat.

... in addition to being super-exploited, Dubai's helots are also expected to be generally invisible. The bleak work camps on the city's outskirts, where laborers are crowded six, eight, even twelve to a room, are not part of the official tourist image of a city of luxury without slums or poverty ...

- Well, what did you think, it sure wasn't robots out there doing all that construction, was it. Some readers found the article shocking. But it's a part of the local history here as well. Anyway, it's all more or less indentured slavery nowadays in this consumeristic society, and you could say, a matter of degree and location ("degree" also as in, whether working in a 22-degC office or 45-degC heat). Don't agree? Unless you paid cash (or someone did on your behalf) for your house and maybe car too, perhaps.

(2005-07-17 18:59:41 SGT) [Musings] Permalink

Nicaragua Hits the Crunch First

peakoil.com -> republic-news.org :

Recently, Fidel Castro, who attended the first PetroCaribe Energy Summit at Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela, made a statement that was ignored by international media. He informed the summit that no Caribbean country will be able to purchase oil once the price reaches $100 a barrel.

Castro was only pointing out the obvious—the first places to be affected by increasing fuel costs will be the poorest countries of the world. The fact that media ignored this statement is significant. Logically, if one wishes to understand how rising energy costs will affect us, then one should look at the very places that are being affected now. The poorest countries that rely completely on diesel generators for their electricity are the ones showing the initial signs of trouble brewing ...

(2005-07-17 18:26:33 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

HP to slash 15000 jobs

news.com :

Hewlett-Packard officials worked over the weekend to finalize the size of the layoffs, which will come within 5 percent of the previously targeted 15,000 positions, according to a source close to the company. IT, sales and services will be among the areas particularly hit, although the sweeping cuts will be felt throughout the company, according to the source.

HP is expected to announce the layoffs as early as Monday, but employees are not expected to be immediately notified of their status, the source said, noting such a practice is common in corporate America. More high-level discussions on the layoffs will occur late next week and employees may get a greater sense of their specific status sometime thereafter.

Analysts, however, have been expecting HP's Technology and Solutions Group to be the likely recipient of most of the pink slips, as well as services and HP's research and development spending.

Massive job cuts have been more the rule than the exception in recent years at the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company. HP laid off thousands of employees under the plan by previous CEO Carly Fiorina to merge with Compaq Computer.

- It's not really slowing down, is it? I mean, the race to the bottom and all that, as someone from Mexico reportedly noted :

"... in order for a world economy to work, all economies must be at the same level. I don't think the USA can bring everyone up to your level, so you are going to have to come down to our level. We will all race to the bottom... . Like there is some great reward for having the lowest standard of living."

Update (18 Jul 2005): now also on Slashdot (they're slow on this one! lol).