The Second Great Depression

The First Half of the Age of Oil now closes. It lasted 150 years and saw the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade, agriculture and financial capital, allowing the population to expand six-fold. The financial capital was created by banks with confidence that Tomorrow's Expansion, fuelled by oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for Today's Debt.

The Second Half of the Age of Oil now dawns, and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present Financial System, and related political structures, speaking of a Second Great Depression.

But there are survival strategies. Governments may be persuaded to sign the Depletion Protocol* whereby imports are cut to match world depletion rate, such that world prices fall into reasonable relationship with cost, and profiteering from shortage avoided; the current monumental waste of energy may be reduced; renewable energies from wave, tide, wind, solar, hydro and geothermal sources may be brought in; and the nuclear option re-evaluated.

nb: * if they're not too busy fighting the resource wars first ...

- Okay that's about it for today's blog posts. There seems to have been a burst of peak oil related news out there currently. Or maybe it's just backlog. Hmm.

Here's looking at it from another angle - sociologists who know what they're looking for might see certain trends - for example, a return to "retro" fashion, "oldies" music playing in malls and on radio, hats and caps coming back into fashion just like in the 1930's - in general, a yearning for eras past.

And what about popular culture - major blockbuster movies and TV series going into prequels (sure, blame "Star Wars Episode III", but it isn't the only one - what about "Batman Begins", "Exorcist", "Red Dragon", "Star Trek: Enterprise" etc).

(2005-05-05 22:42:47 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

The War of Resources

energybulletin.net :

Peak oil is already here

Now that the phenomenon of peak oil has been universally explained and understood in leading media in Canada like The Globe and Mail and National Post, and its arrival has been widely acknowledged (even by the US President), it is now time to consider the unfolding consequences of this new global reality. What the cresting of the peak of global oil production signals is the start of the long-anticipated and worldwide War of Resources ... it is from now on safe to assume that major combatants have switched over their economies, foreign policies, and militaries to a total war footing as all-encompassing as major combatants did during World War II.

There are six powerful nations that, with the passing of peak oil and the dawning of the War of Resources, now comprise the six major powers in that war: they are the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Japan, and India. These six may from time to time form temporary alliances among each other in all possible configurations, as their own calculations dictate. But they are each in the game for themselves, and hostilities in any configuration are also possible - a point that cannot be emphasized enough.

There are many minor players in this war also whose national economies produce significant amounts of oil, but there are six among them whose control is both crucial to the major powers, and whose allegiances may also be in play: they are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq.

There are as well six major private oil companies powerful enough to be considered instrumental in the political, economic, and military decisions made in any and all of these capitals as the War of Resources unfolds. These companies are BP-Amoco, RoyalDutch/Shell, ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, TotalFinaElf and ConocoPhillips. These companies will play the role of regulating the relative heat of this war in each of its big and small battlefields with an eye toward maximizing their profits ...

- Hmm, 6 major powers, 6 major oil producers, 6 major oil companies. You thinking what I'm thinking ... ("666") ?

(2005-05-05 22:39:04 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Against Nature (/Sarcasm)

energybulletin.net :

"The War on Nature we have been waging on this planet is going extraordinarily well. When we first invaded thousands of years ago, it seemed like a war that could not be won. The enemy was too big and strong for us to bring down. It is with much pride that I can state today we are very close to an assured victory.

... even just a couple of hundred years ago it looked like that day would never come. The amount of ground we have gained since then is simply amazing. Who would believe we could achieve so much in so little time.

So what if the sacrifice means the extinction of our species. It's the end goal that matters. Extinction pales in comparison to the prestige of the Victory—defeating Nature itself. No other species has ever been known to do this. We will be the first and perhaps the only, imagine that!

The last 200 years has been our best yet. We have seen our army grow from 1 billion to 6.5 billion strong. The exponential growth strategy is going exactly to plan. At current rates we will completely fill all of the planet's land surface area by 2300. The strain this has already put on Nature is very encouraging for us ...

We are very happy to announce that China and India have decided to join the effort. They are both training their populations to become efficient consumers. This will more than quadruple the consumption rate of Nature's resources. Very exciting! ..."

(2005-05-05 22:29:09 SGT) [Env] Permalink

IBM to axe 13000 staff

iht.com :

IBM has announced that it will lay off 10,000 to 13,000 workers, mostly in Europe, as it struggles to keep up its profit at a time when global competition in the technology business spreads beyond selling computers to providing services.

IBM employs about 322,000 people worldwide today, after 10,000 IBM workers were transferred to Lenovo Group of China, which on Sunday completed its purchase of IBM's personal computer business. So the payroll cuts will amount to 3 percent to 4 percent of the work force. While most of the trimming will be in Western Europe, including Germany, France and Italy, some will also be made in the United States, where IBM employs 120,000 people ...

The company attributed its weak performance primarily to its big services business, which now accounts for more than half of the company's revenue and is supposed to be the main engine of IBM's growth in the future.

In a sense, IBM's strategy in moving toward services mirrors the course of the U.S. economy. The company depends less on manufacturing than it did in the heyday of mainframe computers as it moves up the economic ladder to helping corporate customers use information technology ... yet IBM faces increasing competition and price pressure in services from low-cost rivals like Dell, which is rapidly expanding in services, as well as Indian outsourcing companies like Wipro, Tata Consulting and Infosys ...

"Huge oil find" in Utah

peakoil.com :

"A tiny oil company has snapped up leasing rights to a half-million acres in central Utah that it says could yield a billion barrels or more of oil.

Geologists are calling it a spectacular find - the largest onshore discovery in at least 30 years, located in a region of complex geology long abandoned for exploration by major oil companies. It is turning out to contain high-quality oil already commanding a premium at refineries."

- "Guys, this is a huge find on the mainland. There is enough oil in the find to satisfy the current world demand for a full 12 days."

- Putting it another way, that will move the peak date by less than a fortnight. *If* it's a confirmed find. *If* it is "ultimately recoverable". Remember what happened to Shell's "reserves". lol.

(2005-05-05 22:15:47 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Peak Oil on Playboy

Peak Oil on National Geographic, Peak Oil on CNN, Peak Oil on Rolling Stone, Peak Oil in Congress - and now, ladies and gentlemen, we have Peak Oil on, of all places, Playboy magazine.

peakoil.com -> theglobeandmail.com :

Is there a top in sight for the price of oil? Apparently not. I have it on good authority - no less than Playboy magazine. The soon-to-hit-the-newsstands issue of Playboy (July) features an article on "peak oil." The article is said to explore a once-obscure theory that global oil supplies are about to start running dry. Ergo, the price must rise. Well done, Sherlock ...

(2005-05-05 21:55:00 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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