Wednesday February 27, 2008

US dollar sinks to new lows, gold price hits $955.70 all-time record, crude oil hits $101.43 record high

iht.com :

The dollar sank to a record low against the euro on Wednesday [27 Feb 2008], breaking the psychologically important $1.50 level. The euro surged as high as $1.5050, its highest level since the single currency was introduced in 1999. The dollar hit an all-time low against a basket of currencies a day after U.S. consumer sentiment was reported to have sunk to a five-year low, offering more proof that the world's largest economy is struggling. The report, along with recent weak retail sales and manufacturing data, has reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates further, pressuring the dollar. Broad weakness in the U.S. currency pushed the US dollar index [USDX] to a record low 74.509.

The weakening dollar also sparked a rally in commodities and metals. Oil extended its rally, benefiting from the slumping dollar. Analysts also cited growing fuel demand and expectations that the OPEC cartel will not increase production at its meeting in early March as other key factors. Crude oil futures rose to a record $101.43 in US trade on Tuesday [26 Feb 2008]. Gold roared to a historic high of $955.70 an ounce, well above the $946.60/947.40 seen in late U.S. trade. Bullion prices have risen more than 14% so far this year.

- As the dollar burns, commodities take off. Oil has smashed through resistance at the earlier records of $100.00, $100.09, and is now consolidating solidly at the $101 level. A couple of days ago, I remarked that it was crazy to talk about consolidation of crude oil at the $99+ level. Well, it's even crazier now. $100 is the new support level, just like I said it would be, followed by $95, $90 and $85, but don't bet on the last two. We're in triple-digit territory now.

As for gold, it has broken through the $950 barrier which had been serving as resistance up until this point. It had been turned back twice before just as it reached $948 and then $949, and now that it has broken through, $950 is now support, followed by $925, $900, and $850, and I wouldn't really bet on the last 2. I am still thinking about a short consolidation between 925-975, but after that, gold is headed for $1000 and beyond.

See also :

1. Gold rises to record $949.20 as oil sparks demand for inflation hedge
2. Crude oil hits $101.32 on increased demand, rate cuts

(2008-02-27 12:51:13 SGT) [Biz] Permalink Comments [2]

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