Troubled future for world oil supply

It may already be too late for the United States to avoid massive economic disruption because of a decline in worldwide oil production, an industry expert said yesterday. Roger Bezdek, a consultant for the U.S. Department of Energy, told the Global Oil Depletion conference that it will take more than a decade to find alternative sources of energy if oil production reaches a peak, which may be imminent. "No one knows when oil will peak," Bezdek said. "But if we wait until the peak, we will be in deep economic troubles for decades."

Matthew Simmons, an investment banker, said the United States has been in denial about energy issues for decades. The nation has built its economy and lifestyle around an endless supply of cheap oil and now finds itself with stiff competition for oil from India and China. Simmons said the U.S. should switch to moving more goods by railroad and ship, rather than trucks, to cut oil consumption. More workers should work from home to cut down on commuting, he said. The nation should also grow more of its own food to cut down on imports.

Herman Franssen, president of International Energy Associates of Chevy Chase, Md., said that two-thirds of the world's oil comes from the Middle East, which probably cannot increase its production very much. He predicted that India and China within 20 years will need as much oil as the industrialized world now consumes and that prices will skyrocket.

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