The Slow Flow of Russian Oil

For five years, the managers of Russia's richest oil fields in western Siberia increased output by 14 percent annually, overcoming decades of Soviet neglect by repairing leaks, replacing pumps and charting better geological maps. But then it stopped. In the year since Yuganskneftegas, the main production unit of the Yukos oil company, was effectively nationalized in December 2004, it will ship the same amount of crude oil, 385 million barrels, that it did in 2004, even as prices shot up in 2005 and the global supply of oil remained extremely tight.

The fields straddle five of western Siberia's best-producing reserves. The state-controlled oil and gas company Rosneft won them in January after the authorities took control of Yuganskneftegas, officially as part payment for a $28 billion tax claim against Yukos, then Russia's largest private oil company.

The stakes are high. By some rankings, Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. Energy ministry projections cited by the United States Energy Department show crude oil exports rising possibly to 5.5 million barrels a day this year, from 5.14 million barrels in 2004, and reaching 6.2 million barrels a day by 2015.

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