Wednesday February 04, 2009

Singapore, Taiwan GDP may shrink 10-11% in 2009 : CLSA

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

bloomberg.com :

Taiwan and Singapore may see their economies shrink by a tenth this year as Asia's export-dependent nations trade less with each other, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Taiwan's gross domestic product will probably decline 11% and Singapore's economy will contract 10%, according to a CLSA report published today [4 Feb 2009]. South Korea's GDP will drop about 7%, the report said. "In a number of countries, the wheels have fallen off the primary driver of Asian growth: exports." Asia's export-driven economies are slowing as demand for their products diminishes amid recessions in the US, Japan and Europe. Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand will see GDP contractions of 5% this year, the report said.

- I dread the day that I have to add a Singapore depression watch page to replace the one on the Singapore recession watch. Because that's what is going to happen when we hit either or both of these figures :

a. The Singapore GDP contracts by 10% or more
b. The Singapore unemployment rate rises to 10% or higher

There is scant agreement on what exactly constitutes an economic depression but we could use these two benchmarks for now. With the leading economic indicator NODX hitting -20.8%, we should be on alert for a Second Great Depression type of scenario over here. Unless we can pull off a recovery in the second half of 2009 or by 2010 like what those economists say. But you know what I think about those economists in general. If they didn't see this whole thing coming what makes them think they know when it will end?

So. One of three things : all-out collapse, a sluggish muddle-through, or all-out hyperinflation - take your pick.

See also :

1. Singapore economy falling into technical recession as exports fall
2. Singapore economy in recession, GDP contracts 6.3% in Q3 2008, MAS ends currency gain policy
3. Singapore GDP contracted 6.8% annualized in Q3 2008, heads deeper into recession
4. Singapore recession deepens as NODX (non-oil domestic exports) fall 20.8% in Dec 2008

(2009-02-04 23:36:49 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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