Inflation, Investing and Everything
This article belongs to the Singapore property market story arc.
The level of speculative activity in the private property market, as measured by the extent of subsales, slowed considerably in Q4 last year , especially in the Core Central Region (CCR), according to the latest official data. Property consultants attributed the drop to uncertainty about the financial markets as well as the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme in October 2007. Some seasoned market players are predicting that home prices in CCR could take a hit of up to 10% this year; those in RCR [Rest of Central Region] will be flat, perhaps rising slightly; while OCR [Outside Central Region] will post the biggest gains of about 10-15%.
The number of resale HDB flats which changed hands fell to a new low in 2007 - with just 29,436 transactions recorded - as buyer resistance set in, in the face of escalating resale prices and more sellers asking for large amounts of cash-over-valuation (COV), fresh HDB data shows. Stock-market jitters in the fourth quarter also caused resale transactions in the last three months of 2007 to fall 13% to 6,700. The fall in transaction volume came despite a 17.5% increase in HDB resale prices last year. In the fourth quarter, HDB resale prices rose 5.7%, lower than the increase of 6.6% seen in the third quarter.
- I have continued to track the Singapore M3 money supply growth rate, and it has also started to drop together with the softening in the local property market in the past couple of months. From a high of 23.62% in Jun 2007, M3 growth momentum has decelerated to 17-18% in Oct and Nov 2007.
Note that 17-18% is still a rather high rate of money supply growth. The deceleration in M3 may be good news on the inflation front if (and only if) GDP growth starts to catch up with M3 growth. If economic growth slows down or contracts, and M3 does not slow as fast or even reverses and takes off, it will be stagflationary.
See also :
Most popular blog postings on lowem.log :
1. Singapore MRT rail network length to double by 2020
Featured articles on lowem.log :
1. Book review : Shut Down by William Flynn