Sunday November 23, 2008

Singapore GDP contracted 6.8% annualized in Q3 2008, heads deeper into recession

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

bloomberg.com :

The Singapore economy, already in recession, may shrink by as much as 1% in 2009, the first time since 2001. Year-on-year, Singapore's economy declined 0.6% in Q3 2008. Singapore's GDP contracted an annualized 6.8% in Q3 2008 quarter-on-quarter, after shrinking a revised 5.3% in Q2. Singapore's economy has been battered by declining orders for electronic goods and pharmaceuticals from its biggest customers in recession-hit US and Europe.

The manufacturing industry, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, contracted 11.4% from a year earlier, leading to widening losses at companies including Chartered Semiconductor. Three-quarters of the 2,000 workers retrenched in Singapore in Q3 were from manufacturing. More workers are expected to be laid off in manufacturing and finance, the government said. Singapore's services industry slowed as the global credit crunch hurt financial companies, tourist arrivals dropped and consumers cut back on spending. The Singapore dollar is among Asia's worst performing currencies after MAS shifted to a "zero-percent appreciation" stance, sliding 6.2% against the USD since Oct 2008.

- Here we have it, the first official confirmation of Singapore's GDP growth turning into a GDP contraction, as the year-on-year rate falls into negative territory. Another quarter of this and we would be in full-blown recession as measured by year-on-year GDP figures. Before this, the talk was all about how this was a technical recession, since the figures were quarter-on-quarter and the annual rates were based on extrapolation.

There is no more half-hopeful talk of a "technical recession" now. The Singapore government is now saying that this is going to last for a few years. The contrarian community agrees and has already looked ahead and we see that we have headed not only into a recession, but a depression. Welcome to the Second Great Depression. And yes, it will last many years. More than you might expect.

See also :

1. Singapore stagflation : May 2008 exports fell most in 17 months; inflation at 26-year highs
2. Singapore GDP shrinks 6.6% in Q2 2008 as stagflation continues
3. Singapore economy falling into technical recession as exports fall
4. Singapore economy in recession, GDP contracts 6.3% in Q3 2008, MAS ends currency gain policy

(2008-11-23 10:57:19 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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