Monday January 21, 2008

Singapore exports lurch to worst showing in five years - economists surprised (again)

businesstimes.com.sg :

Even the economists were caught off-guard. They had expected Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in December to grow at a healthy clip, compared to a year ago. Instead, they fell 4.5% on the heels of a 3.4% drop in November. This unexpected slowdown meant that, for the year as a whole, NODX put on its worst showing in five years. Last year's disappointing export performance came despite a robust growth in the overall economy, which put on 7.5% gains.

Economists in the private sector, meanwhile, feel that the looming recession in the United States could hit Asian exports. Poor electronics exports was a key reason for the NODX's poor performance last year. Shipments fell each month since February as a global inventory glut pushed down prices of memory chips and microprocessors. For the year, electronic exports fell 9.2% from 2006.

- This is looking really ugly. This phrase about the so-called economists being "caught off-guard" is being repeated in the media so often it is starting to sound like a cliche. NODX shrinking, GDP shrinking, inflation hitting 25-year record highs, retail sales falling off a cliff. All of these are surprising the economists. Some choice quotes :

a. Singapore's mainstay exports fell unexpectedly as the electronics sector remained weak ...
b. Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted as factory output slowed ...
c. Singapore's retail sales unexpectedly declined ...
d. Singapore's consumer prices rose faster-than-expected ...

There could be a lot more "surprises" coming up in the future ...

See also :

1. Singapore non-oil exports down sharply
2. Singapore economy shrinks first time since 2003
3. Singapore GDP unexpectedly shrinks on weaker output
4. Singapore retail sales fall as car purchases slump

(2008-01-21 17:57:11 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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