Monday February 25, 2008

Singapore economy stuck in mud : inflation rising, M3 falling, GDP crashing - the stagflation formula

This article belongs to the Singapore stagflation watch story arc.

mas.gov.sg -> mas.gov.sg (pdf) :

The latest Singapore money supply figures are out. For the month of Dec 2007, the Singapore M3 money supply growth has continued to slow, and it now stands at 14.14% year-on-year. However, real inflation shows no signs of abating because we are at the point where economic growth is falling (crashing) faster than M3 money supply growth is slowing. The Singapore economy is thus stuck in mud, and the stagflation formula goes as follows :

14.14% M3 growth - (-4.8% economic growth) = 18.94% real inflation rate.

For your reference, the money supply figures for the year of 2007 are as follows (click here for the spreadsheet if the inline frame is not shown) :

As you can see, in 2007 we have been roaring along with an average M3 money supply growth of 20.6% year-on-year. It was only in the last 3 months (Oct-Dec 2007) that the money supply growth has slowed down considerably.

However, if anything else, this is even worse than the time where it was reported on this blog when M3 growth hit a high of 23.62% back in Jun 2007. At the time, GDP growth was reported to be a still-healthy 8.6% so the M3-to-GDP differential was 23.62% - 8.6% = 15.02% then.

Hence, for myself and for those of you readers who subscribe to the classic Austrian-school definition of monetary inflation as money supply growth relative to economic growth, the fight to maintain our purchasing power has just gotten a lot harder, and this stagflationary environment just makes things even worse.

See also :

1. Singapore 2007Q4 GDP contracted 4.8%, 2008 economic growth forecast lowered
2. Singapore economy shrinks first time since 2003
3. Singapore CPI inflation hits new 25-year high of 4.4% in December
4. Singapore : Inflation rate could push past 6% in Q1 2008

Updated :

1. Singapore stagflation : May 2008 exports fell most in 17 months; inflation at 26-year highs
2. Singapore GDP shrinks 6.6% in Q2 2008 as stagflation continues
3. Singapore retail sales growth slows as inflation hurts spending

(2008-02-25 13:10:42 SGT) [Biz] Permalink Comments [1]

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