Sunday October 12, 2008

Singapore economy in recession, GDP contracts 6.3% in Q3 2008, MAS ends currency gain policy

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

bloomberg.com :

Singapore fell into the first recession since 2002 as manufacturing slumped, prompting the central bank to end a policy favoring gains in its currency in an effort to support the economy. Singapore's GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, contracted an annualized 6.3% in Q3 2008 from the previous 3 months, after shrinking a revised 5.7% in Q2 2008. MAS said today [10 Oct 2008] it's shifting to a "zero-percent appreciation" stance. A weaker Singapore dollar would help electronics exporters such as Venture and Chartered Semiconductor by making their products cheaper overseas. Central banks around the world are loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates as a worsening global credit crisis saps growth, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank lowering rates in an emergency global coordination that was followed in Asia by China, Taiwan and South Korea, while Australia cut its key rate by one percentage point on Oct 7.

The trade ministry said Singapore's economy will grow about 3% in 2008 from a year earlier, the weakest pace in 7 years. Exports may decline as much as 4% this year, and shipments of electronics goods have fallen for 19 consecutive months. Growth has deteriorated as a slump in export demand forced factories to cut production, tourist arrivals faltered and a real-estate boom ended.

- I have been tracking Singapore's fall into recession for almost a year now, ever since the first reports started coming in around Dec 2007 about exports being down sharply, and months before that, when the slump in the electronics manufacturing sector looked like it wasn't going away any time soon.

The electronics sector can be considered a leading indicator of economic activity, as it is very capital-intensive, products get obsolete quickly with a very fast replacement cycle, and it is extremely sensitive to changes in consumer demand. So it has been, with Singapore's electronics exports down for 19 months running, the announcement of the economy falling into a technical recession finally made its way to the front pages of the Straits Times national newspaper.

Bear in mind that the Singapore GDP contraction of 6.3% is an annualized figure based on extrapolating the quarter-on-quarter results, hence this is called a technical recession, whereby there are 2 such consecutive quarters of contraction, based on the extrapolated figures. The year-on-year results are still in positive territory for now, and seeing how things are going, it is only a matter of time before Singapore officially goes into a full-blown recession, perhaps some time in 2009.

In order to support the economy, the MAS has had to change its monetary policy, and it is always a big deal whenever a central bank declares a change to its monetary policy. Inflation seems to be tapering off for the moment, with economic growth slowing down. But if you have been following the M3 money supply growth figures, not only of Singapore but also of countries around the world, you will notice that M3 growth rates have been slowing down, but also bottomed out in recent months and are on an up-trend again. Given slowing economic growth and rising money supply, it is only a matter of time before inflation roars back with a vengeance.

See also :

1. Singapore industrial production unexpectedly dropped in Apr 2008 on drugs, electronics
2. Singapore stagflation : May 2008 exports fell most in 17 months; inflation at 26-year highs
3. Singapore GDP shrinks 6.6% in Q2 2008 as stagflation continues
4. Singapore retail sales growth slows as inflation hurts spending
5. Singapore economy falling into technical recession as exports fall

(2008-10-12 11:26:42 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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