Significant cut in gasoline use is decades away: automakers

energybulletin.net -> news.yahoo.com :

It will be decades before the world will see a significant cut in global automotive gasoline consumption, automakers and analysts said. While there have been major improvements in fuel economy and reduced emissions through the development of technologies such as hybrids and clean diesel, consumers are not adopting them quickly enough to make a serious dent.

Hybrids which can improve fuel economy by 20-60% currently make up less than 1% of global sales. Biofuels such as ethanol actually reduce fuel efficiency and there are questions as to when they will become widely available. Zero-emission hydrogen and electric-powered vehicle are still five to ten years away from becoming marketable and a hydrogen fuel delivery system still has to be developed.

But the biggest delay will come from the length of time it will take consumers to adopt new technologies and for automakers to shift the production systems away from traditional vehicles, said Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research and development. "There are 850 million internal combustion vehicles in the world today. No matter what you come up with you're going to have to let that global car park play out and that's going to consume petroleum for some time going forward.". About 66 to 70 million new vehicles are sold every year and it will take 12 to 15 years to replace the global fleet, Burns said.

(2007-02-15 12:36:43 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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