Scientists get last say in climate study

Diplomats from 115 countries and 52 scientists hashed out the most comprehensive and gloomiest warning yet about the possible effects of global warming, from increased flooding, hunger, drought and diseases to the extinction of species. The 23-page summary certainly didn't sound diplomatic. But it was too much so, scientists said.

A comparison of the original document, written by scientists, and the finished paper showed major reductions in forecasts for hunger and flooding victims. Instead of "hundreds of millions" of potential flood victims, the report said "many millions." A key mention of up to 120 million people at risk of hunger because of global warming was eliminated.

Yet, scientists have their fallback: a second summary that consists of 79 densely written, heavily footnoted pages. The "technical summary," which will eventually be released to the public, will not be edited by diplomats. The technical summary, NASA's Cynthia Rosenzweig said, contains "the real facts." Some of its highlights, not included in the 23-page already-released summary:

* "More than one sixth of the world population live in glacier- or snowmelt-fed river basins and will be affected by decrease of water volume." And depending on how much fossil fuels are burned in the future, "262-983 million people are likely to move into the water stressed-category" by 2050.

* Global warming could increase the number of hungry in the world in 2080 by anywhere between 140 million and 1 billion, depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted into the air over the next few decades.

* "Overall a 2 to 3 fold increase of population to be flooded is expected by 2080."

* Malaria, diarrhea diseases, dengue fever, tick-borne diseases, heat-related deaths will all rise with global warming. But in the United Kingdom, the drop in cold-related deaths will be bigger than the increase in heatstroke related deaths.

* In eastern North America, depending on fossil fuel emissions, smog will increase and there would be a 4.5 percent increase in smog-related deaths.

* Because global warming will hurt the poor more, there will be more "social equity" concerns and pressure for governments to do more.

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