Monday September 18, 2006

Producers move to debunk "Peak Oil" forecasts

english.people.com.cn :

Leading petroleum producers, including Saudi Arabia and Exxon Mobil, are aggressively arguing that plenty of crude oil remains for world consumption, a move to counter critics who contend crude output is about to plateau. The argument, known as the "peak-oil" theory, has provided intellectual backing for the boom in crude prices and sowed doubts among some policy makers about crude's long-term reliability as an energy source. Such doubts, coupled with concern over sky-high prices, have added impetus to the search for oil substitutes - including in Washington, where President Bush declared the country was "addicted to oil" and sparked a boom in interest in ethanol.

Some in the industry are keen to fight the threat posed by such fears. At an OPEC seminar, Jum'ah of Aramco said the world had produced only about one trillion barrels, or about 18 percent, of the earth's producible potential of 5.7 trillion barrels of oil. "That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent, and put our minds at ease concerning future petroleum supplies," he said. The remaining 4.7 trillion barrels should be enough to last more than 140 years at current output rates, he said.

- Just a few issues to raise : 1. our using up of 1 trillion barrels is a fact, but the 5.7 trillion barrel reserves figure is not a fact ("show me the barrels") 2. there is no such thing as "current rates" - the real question is, how much growth will any given resource support and for how long?

See also :

1. Oil rout deepest in 16 yrs
2. Crude oil falls below $64 on forecast for lower global demand

(2006-09-18 12:17:35 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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