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20080130 Wednesday January 30, 2008

PetroChina drops 44% - so much for the BRIC decoupling theory

bloomberg.com :

The biggest slide in emerging-market stock valuations in a year and a half is proving that a slowdown in the U.S. economy still matters to Brazil, Russia, India and China. Companies such as PetroChina, the country's biggest oil producer, and Russia's OAO Lukoil show the threat of a global slump is shaking the confidence of investors who viewed developing countries as a haven from the US.

PetroChina's 44% plummet since November erased about $400 billion, more than the market value of Microsoft. Russian stocks are headed for their biggest loss in 19 months after money managers bought an unprecedented amount in 2007. Predictions of a contraction in the U.S. pushed 46 of the world's 67 largest indexes down to at least 20% below their previous highs as of last week, qualifying the markets as bear.

- You know, for a while Petrochina had a bigger market cap than Exxon-Mobil. What a hoot. Saudi Aramco I might believe, but Petrochina? No way.

Also, in order for the decoupling theory to work, to be the new Atlas supporting the global economy, the Asian consumer has to be as profligate in spending as the American consumer. Except for some members of the younger generation, that is not likely to happen any time soon.

See also :

1. Stock drop pulls 38 indexes into bear market
2. Stocks plunge, 2007 gains wiped out

(2008-01-30 00:50:07 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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