"Peak Oil" to "Transition One"

energybulletin.net, by Dr. Ali Samsan Bakhtiari, National Iranian Oil Company Chief Advisor :

In my humble opinion, we should now have reached 'Peak Oil'. At present, global oil output fluctuates around 82 mb/d as some institutions try vainly to push 2005 statistics towards 83 and 84 mb/d. But they will be obliged to backtrack as 'actual' oil supplies fail to follow their 'paper' ones.

So that, in the 'Peak Oil' aftermath, we are about to enter what I call 'Transition One' [T1] - a rather bizarre phase akin to a vague 'no-man's-land' between still adequate oil supplies and the clear realization that demand has definitely left supply behind. Fortunately, the hidden advantage of 'T1' is that worldwide oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase, allowing those with foresight, intelligence and agility to begin preparing for the next, more-turbulent phases: 'T2', 'T3' ...

(2005-10-27 13:44:04 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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