Monday January 23, 2006

Peak oil : on the verge of hitting prime time

peakoil.com -> financialsense.com :

Some time within the next twenty years, perhaps as early as 2008, world oil production will peak, and life as we know it will change. This seems to be the emerging consensus being rapidly embraced by the academic and trading community in some circles. One scientist, the University of Reading's Dr Roger Bentley, the secretary of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, told the audience that "the evidence is irrefutable. He points out that 64 of the world's 100 or so oil-producing countries are already past the point of peak production and on the downward slope.

Dr. Bentley sounds pessimistic. But there were others who sounded darker tones: Dr. Jeremy Leggett, an oil industry geologist turned environmental campaigner turned chief executive of a solar energy company, paints an even more apocalyptic scene. He believes that peak oil will occur some time this decade. That will not only produce "horrible economic pain" as oil prices rise to choke off demand but it will also precipitate environmental disaster as oil-consuming countries switch to coal and hasten global warming."

Oil production is slowing. Prices have been rising. And the Peak Oil movement is gathering steam. So far, this is "inside baseball," within investing and scientific circles, with some mention in the mainstream media. But one thing is certain. Peak oil is working on becoming a reality. Whether it comes because there is no oil left to produce, or whether it comes because oil companies aren't willing to take the huge risks now needed to get at the stuff, doesn't really matter. In other words, if you can't get it, or you won't get it, you still don't get it. And splitting hairs over this won't matter much, if it gets to the point where we sit in cold, dark houses, as we watch our cars rust.

(2006-01-23 22:39:18 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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