Thursday August 31, 2006

Peak oil forecasters win converts on Wall Street to $200 crude

bloomberg.com :

Peak Oil proponents say global oil production is now at or near its zenith. Once the flow crests and starts to decline - and some geologists say it already has - oil will no longer be able to slake the world's growing thirst for energy. The result will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks. The price of a barrel of crude will spiral to $200 - and keep rising. To the peaksters, today's energy crunch is nothing next to the pain that will follow.

As energy prices soar and violence convulses the Middle East, the peak-oil movement - an unlikely alliance of geologists, physicists, oil industry consultants and environmental activists - is winning converts. Peak-oil ideas are bubbling up from scientific journals and offbeat Web sites, much the way warnings of global warming did a decade ago. For the first time, the peaksters have begun to grab the attention of Washington and Wall Street.

Billionaire Boone Pickens says he's a peak believer. So does Peter Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and now runs Clarium Capital Management, a $2.1 billion hedge fund firm. Pickens, Thiel and other investors are positioning themselves to profit from what they say will be the biggest oil squeeze of all time. Even some oil companies and industry veterans sound nervous. Chevron has run a series of full-page ads in U.S. newspapers that declare, "The era of easy oil is over." Thierry Desmarest, CEO of Total SA, told the World Gas Conference in Amsterdam in June that global oil production would peak in 2020. Matthew Simmons, whose investment bank Simmons & Co trades oil and gas stocks, says Saudi Arabia's production may decline soon.

- That is just a small excerpt of a long article on Bloomberg - probably the biggest coverage of peak oil on Bloomberg ever.

Now that the "Investing for Peak Oil" story is out among the investment elite, I have only one regret - I wish I had put in much, much more money, and much, much earlier. Only problem : I don't have much, much more money than I have already put in, and I didn't act on it until relatively recently. Well, as a small consolation, a 45% portfolio gain ain't bad.

But you know, I aim for 100% - or better ... :)

See also :

1. The Rainwater Prophecy
2. Big Oil warns of coming energy crunch
3. Chevron Texaco launches Peak Oil website
4. Investment strategy for rising energy prices

(2006-08-31 12:41:03 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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