Tuesday September 18, 2007 
Tuesday September 18, 2007
Crude oil rose above $81 a barrel for the first time in New York on speculation rising global demand may hamper efforts to store fuel for the fourth quarter. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show oil stockpiles in the world's biggest consumer fell for the 10th time in 11 weeks, according to a survey of analysts. The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut lending rates later today [18 Sep 2007] to help prevent the nation's housing slump from slowing the economy, interest rate futures show.
Crude oil for October delivery rose as much 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $81.18 a barrel, and was trading at $81.04 in after- hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:28 a.m. in Singapore. The contract rose $1.47, or 1.9 percent, to $80.57 yesterday, the highest closing price since trading began in 1983.
- Oil is hitting new records really quickly this time round. $80.18 barely lasted a day before it was toppled by $80.20, and that lasted less than a week and $81.18 is now the new record.
It really did bounce off $78, didn't it. It was hovering at the low $78's yesterday. Come now, one more good bounce off $78 and that will be the new floor. We have 3 data points now : 2 tops at $78.40, $78.77, and 1 bottom at $78.25. The case for a $78 floor will be a lot stronger if we get another $78-ish bottom.
On the other hand, we are seriously, way above the 200dma now, it's at $65.34. $81.18 is now 24.24% higher than the 200dma. If prices keep it up at these levels, the moving average will eventually catch up. If not, then if you've heard of "reversion to the mean", well $65 is the mean. Hmm. Probably not, huh?
- Update 1 : New record has been hit at $81.24
- Update 2 : New record has been hit at $81.35
- Update 3 : New record has been hit at $82.38 (after Fed rate cut)
- Update 4 : New record has been hit at $82.51
See also :
1. Oil hits record $80.18 (13 Sep 2007)
2. Oil hits record high of $78.77 a barrel (1 Aug 2007)
3. Crude oil hits $78.40 - new all-time record high (13 Jul 2006)
(2007-09-18 10:15:18 SGT)
[Energy]
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