NYMEX crude oil prices recover from $60.01 low on oversold rebound

Crude oil prices rebounded from a 7-week low as traders took the view that the decline in prices during the longest losing streak this year was overdone. The IMF said a rebound in the global economy next year will be stronger than it forecast in April, suggesting energy demand may recover. Crude oil prices for Aug 2009 delivery rose to $60.86 a barrel on NYMEX, and traded at $60.72 at 11:46 am Singapore time. Prices (watch live oil prices) fell as low as $60.01 yesterday [8 Jul 2009] before closing at $60.14, the lowest settlement since May 19. Meanwhile, Brent crude for Aug 2009 settlement rose to $61.14 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent crude oil is curently trading at a 32% premium to NYMEX crude oil.

- On a short term basis, the selling *might* have been overdone. And of course, it's now 2009, not 2003 (see historical crude oil chart). Yes, we have bounced quite a bit off that $32.40 level, but the jury is still out. While it *is* true that the $60 price is as good as any as a psychological support level, compared to the moving averages which stand at $64.08 and $56.92 respectively for the 50-/200-dma, the bulls still have to contend with the usual summer-time slowdown in the markets, a global economy that continues to be rather fragile, and the simple fact that the anticipated wave of M3-driven inflation is not due yet for at least another quarter or two.

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