Crude oil prices traded near $47 a barrel, set for a fourth week of gains, as OPEC prepares to meet to consider a cut in output. Crude oil for Apr 2009 delivery was at $46.59 per barrel at 2:36 p.m. Singapore time on NYMEX. Yesterday, futures rose 11% to $47.03, the most since 19 Feb 2009. Prices have advanced 4.6% this year and gained 2.5% this week. OPEC has reduced daily output targets by 4.2 million barrels since Sep 2008. Ministers will meet in Vienna on March 15 to discuss whether to make further cuts.
- Using basic TA, while keeping in mind that technical analysis isn't much of an exact science, we could be looking at an impending 50/200-dma crossover event as crude oil prices start to rise from a 3-month period of consolidation. After 3 long months of attempted and failed rallies, and a bruising $100 fall from the $147.27 record, oil bulls could probably be excused if they are feeling rather skeptical about the latest price movements. If it goes back below $45 or $40, oil bulls will head back to the bunker. But as long as oil remains over $45, there is some reason for hope. If it gets past $47, the $100 argument no longer applies. And if it goes over $50, we're off to the races.