Thursday August 21, 2008

NYMEX crude oil gains a third day on US-Russia tensions, dollar weakness

bloomberg.com :

NYMEX crude oil prices rose on speculation that Russian crude may be disrupted because of rising tensions with the US, and the weaker dollar bolstered commodities. US plans for a missile shield in Poland will "spur an arms race" in Europe, Russia's Foreign Ministry said. About 1.1 million barrels of Caspian Sea crude remains shuttered following a pipeline fire in Turkey on Aug 5. Crude oil for October 2008 delivery rose $2.69 to $118.25 a barrel, recovering from a steep correction that took it down from $147.27 to $111. The September contract expired yesterday at $114.98. The US dollar slipped to a one-week low of $1.4832 against the euro. Gold gained to $817.61 an ounce.

- As I am writing this, NYMEX crude oil prices are up $8 to $119 from the recent low of $111, and gold is up $56 to $830 from the recent low of $774. Unless this is one heck of a bull trap, it looks like the summer lows could be behind us, proving my Beijing Olympics shutdown hypothesis. There will surely be lots of volatility on the way, volatility being a hallmark of commodity markets. We are back on track to $200 oil, and the next immediate resistance levels are in $10 intervals from $120, $130, $140 and the big one : $150. Support levels are $110, $100 and $90, but we wouldn't count on those now, would we?

See also :

1. NYMEX crude oil falls $10 on deep recession fears amidst stock market meltdown
2. NYMEX crude oil falls to $118 as slowing economy dampens demand
3. NYMEX crude oil prices drop over $34 from record highs to $112.31 on stronger dollar
4. The big Beijing 2008 Olympics China shutdown - commodities fall only temporary?

(2008-08-21 21:16:41 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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