New transport road map to be drawn up

business-times.asia1.com.sg (speech), app.mot.gov.sg :

A new road map is being developed to guide Singapore's key land transport developments over the next 10-15 years. Transport Minister Raymond Lim said it is time to take stock of the 1996 White Paper on Land Transport via a comprehensive review, t be undertaken over the next year. The proportion of trips taken on public transport during the morning peak period declined from 67% in 1997 to 63% in 2004. 'The reason for the drop is not because there has been a drop in public transport usage, but simply because we have allowed the car population to increase quite substantially.' His ministry's focus is on the morning peak period, where the target is to increase public transport's current modal share of 63% to at least 70% over the next 10-15 years.

The rail network will be further extended so it is sufficiently comprehensive to serve as the main backbone of the public transport system. The bus system will also be improved through schemes like full-day bus lanes and Quality of Service Standards for buses. Changes are being made to MRT stations and public buses to accommodate the elderly and disabled. Mr Lim hinted at the possibility of new MRT lines in addition to the upcoming Circle Line and Downtown Extension. One source speculated that this could be a reference to a train network serving the Upper Bukit Timah and Eastern Singapore areas.

Asked if Mr Lim's planned initiatives will lead to lower vehicle taxes and higher ERP charges in the short term, motor traders said that would not be a surprise. 'The government's stated direction is to lower ARF and expand ERP to cover more areas but we don't know the time frame,' said Mark Choong, managing director of Borneo Motors Singapore, which distributes Toyota. ERP charges are expected to rise but are unlikely to go up drastically overnight, he said. 'But what is the threshold of pain?' he asked.

- I was also wondering about the question that the MD of Borneo Motors asked. Regarding ERP charges, "what is the threshold of pain?" I have sent feedback earlier, to suggest increasing the ERP charges until actual demand destruction is accomplished and sustained. But, increase to how much?

Empirically, from the "eggs scare" some time back, I observed that demand destruction occurred when prices went above 4-5 times that of the existing level.

Imagine paying $10 for going through a bleeping ERP gantry where the charge is now $2. Next, imagine paying that every morning and evening as you drive along the CTE to the city area to work and back, for an average of 22 working days per month. $88 could have been shrugged off by a car owner, but how about $440? That approaches the monthly instalment payments for some of those cheap Korean cars. That is likely to be more than the monthly petrol bill too. Demand destruction should start to kick in somewhere before this.

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