Sunday March 15, 2009

MM Lee Kuan Yew : Singapore GDP may contract 10% in 2009; retail sales fall most in decade

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

bloomberg.com :

Singapore's retail sales fell the most in a decade in Jan 2009 as consumers purchased fewer cars, household and luxury goods amid a deepening recession. The retail sales index dropped 12.2% from a year earlier. Retail-sale volumes in January decreased 14.8% from a year earlier after removing the effect of higher prices.

Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kwan Yew predicts the economy may contract as much as 10% this year if exports continue to plunge. Job losses may rise in 2009 and reach numbers not seen since the 1997 Asian Crisis as Singapore goes through its worst recession, the government said.

- You wouldn't know it from looking at the crowds of people still thronging the shopping malls nowadays, epsecially during weekends. So we can suppose that these crowds of people are not quite translating into sales for the retailers. Perhaps they are there just to take a leisurely stroll and to enjoy the aircon.

But the really notable point in the article is MM Lee Kuan Yew's prediction of the Singapore GDP falling by as much as 10% in 2009. If they did not quote him wrongly, then that would be a departure from the earlier government forecast of a 2-5% contraction, or even his own earlier forecast of an 8% fall. If MM Lee's forecast turns out to be true, we could be talking depression territory according to one of the two benchmarks I'm following (the other one is a 10% unemployment rate).

See also :

1. Singapore recession deepens as NODX (non-oil domestic exports) fall 20.8% in Dec 2008
2. Singapore, Taiwan GDP may shrink 10-11% in 2009 : CLSA
3. Not just another recession : Singapore NODX exports collapse 34.8% in Jan 2009 in largest fall ever
4. Singapore GDP contracted annualized 16.4% in Q4 2008 on worsening recession

(2009-03-15 10:54:06 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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