Mexicos Cantarell oil production declined at 18% depletion rate in 2007

Oil production from Mexico's giant Cantarell offshore complex continued its steep decline in 2007, dropping to a combined average 1.458 million barrels per day (mbpd) of production from all the fields, down 18% from 2006. The rate of decline remans more rapid than PEMEX had anticipated. Cantarell's production peaked in 2004 at 2.113 million barrels per day, according to SEI data.

The US imported an average of 1.705 million barrels per day of crude from Mexico in 2006 - 12.4% of the total imported - making Mexico the number two source of imported crude behind Canada, with 2.353 mpbd in 2006 (17.7%), according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

- Compared to the peak in 2004, Cantarell's oil production is down 31% in the span of just 3 years. This is a huge decline. Note that this is the world's second largest oil-field. All eyes are on Saudi Arabia's Ghawar now, being the world's largest oil-field. As energy investment banker Matt Simmons says, if Ghawar has peaked, then the world has peaked.

According to Matt Simmons, we have already hit peak oil in ordinary, conventional oil in May 2005. The global peak in all categories of oil is not very far off. ASPO's estimate for the date of global oil peak is 2010, which is just 2 years from now. And the world does not seem to be doing much about it.

Comments:

How to invest in Uranium in sg?

Posted by ling on January 30, 2008 at 09:30 PM SGT #

There's nothing on the local SGX exchange. But if you have access to the US or Canadian markets, you can look up the NLR ETF (AMEX) or U.TO (TSX).

Posted by lowem on January 30, 2008 at 09:57 PM SGT #

How about the Venezuela-sized oil field off the shores of Brazil?

Posted by Akikonomu on January 31, 2008 at 11:15 AM SGT #

Tupi? It might help some but it will take years to get it into production. It is a deepwater field, so each well will be very expensive. Offshore fields tend to have very steep decline rates, so once it does start production, chances are high it will fall off the cliff when it peaks.

And lastly, and most importantly, if everything goes perfectly, it might produce a few hundred thousand barrels of oil per day, but depletion rates elsewhere are running into the millions of barrels a day.

Like I said, it will help some. But not as much as people might have thought.

Posted by lowem on January 31, 2008 at 01:05 PM SGT #