Wednesday January 14, 2009

Mexico Cantarell field oil production down 62% since 2004, may run out in 7 years

peakoil.com -> rigzone.com :

Output at Mexico's main oil field Cantarell will continue sliding this year despite new investments in drilling and well maintenance. A combination of old age and poor long-term planning have frustrated state-run Pemex's efforts to stem the collapse at Cantarell. Production is down by more than half since peaking in 2004. In Nov 2008, Mexican output was the lowest since 1995 at 2.71 million barrels a day. Pemex expects Cantarell's average production to fall roughly 18% to 800,000 barrels a day in 2009.

Mexico is traditionally one of the US's top 3 crude suppliers. Mexican production has dropped by 18%, or 600,000 barrels a day, since 2004, which contributed to the rally in crude oil prices that peaked near $150 a barrel in July. Despite all efforts, observers say the trend at Cantarell is probably irreversible. Mexican exports will dry up in less than 7 years if current decline rates continue.

- I have been tracking the oil production decline in Mexico's Cantarell field since 2004 [previous blog site]. The spectacular decline rate has literally dragged down Cantarell a couple of notches, from being the world's second largest oil field down to fourth place now.

Mexico's Cantarell makes for a pretty compelling case study from a peak oil point of view. If we were talking about a peak oil production rate of 2.113 million barrels per day [mbpd] back in 2004, and an estimated 800 kbpd or 0.8 mbpd in 2009, that makes for a staggering rate of decline of 62% in the past 5 years or so. Hence it is not too hard to imagine a production collapse of over 90% in the next 7 years - or less.

See also :

1. Second largest oil field dying
2. Will Mexico soon be tapped out?
3. Mexico's oil output cools
4. Mexico's Cantarell oil production declined at 18% depletion rate in 2007
5. Mexico to reduce oil exports to US in 2008

(2009-01-14 21:11:25 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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