Megaprojects October 2005 Update

energybulletin.net -> sydneypeakoil.com :

Over the last two years Petroleum Review has regularly updated its listing of the upcoming so-called 'megaprojects'. The aim of the listing is to attempt to answer the question as to whether sufficient oil is being developed to meet likely requirements going forward, writes Chris Skrebowski. This latest update identifies a total of 16.65mn b/d of new capacity due onstream by 2010, made up of 6.34mn b/d of incremental Opec capacity and 10.31mn b/d of non-Opec capacity additions.

In 2004, effectively all the world's spare capacity was used up in meeting unexpectedly rapid demand growth. Total increments required (new demand plus depletion) are running at around 7%/y, while the largest supply increments in 2006 and 2007 are contributing 3.6% and 3.5%.

It would seem most unlikely that small projects and infill drilling could account for the remaining required 3.5%. The inescapable conclusion is that oil prices will have to remain high enough to destroy demand, bringing supply and demand back into balance.

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