Thursday September 21, 2006

Meeting peak oil threat will cost $20 trillion : US

peakoil.com -> gulf-times.com :

The world needs to spend $1 trillion a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed. The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn't predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is "within the next five to 10 years."

To offset losses when world output peaks, "unconventional oil" will need to be rapidly developed, including heavy oil, oil sands, coal liquefaction, gas-to-liquids and enhanced oil recovery. Vehicle fuel efficiency will need to be improved. Hirsch, who is a senior energy programme adviser at research and engineering firm Science Applications International Corp, said the effort required is similar to "the race for the moon, or the mobilisation for World War II" and consumers can't rely on oil companies alone to make the right decisions and investments.

- That was from the fellow who wrote "the Hirsch report", unofficially named after him. You can see that the math doesn't quite add up - if we need to spend $1 trillion a year for 20 years before the peak and the peak is due within 5-10 years, the start date is negative 10 to 15 years. Oops. $20 trillion in 1 year then. Right ...

Some peakoilers are concerned about "the Hirsch angle", which is pushing for "unconventional oil" which includes the environmentally-damaging tar sands and CTL/GTL technology. It has already started though - tar sands operations are in full swing and the US Air Force has flown a B-52 bomber using GTL fuel.

See also :

1. The Hirsch Report
2. Follow-up to the Hirsch Report
3. Peak Oil in the U.S. Congress

(2006-09-21 13:05:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Most popular blog postings on lowem.log :

1. Singapore MRT rail network length to double by 2020
2. 2010 Nissan Leaf electric car specifications : 107hp, 24KWh lithium-ion batteries, 100-mile range
3. Live spot gold price quotes chart on COMEX
4. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option
5. AVG Anti-Virus Free Edition 2011 direct download link
6. Real-time live gold and silver price quotes chart on COMEX
7. Singapore electric vehicles : Government agencies EMA and LTA to study EV introduction
8. Book review : Shut Down by William Flynn

Featured articles on lowem.log :

1. Book review : Shut Down by William Flynn
2. Singapore electric cars testing starts with 9 electric vehicles
3. Honda, GS Yuasa JV to make lithium-ion batteries for 2010/2011 Honda Civic Hybrid
4. 2010 Honda Civic Hybrid preliminary specifications released
5. 2010 Honda CR-Z hybrid, 2010 Honda Fit/Jazz hybrid models confirmed
6. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option
7. NYMEX crude oil recovers from $32.40 low after 2.2 mbpd OPEC production cut announced
8. Singapore : Nuclear power not ruled out