LNG at best an interim measure, alternatives must be looked into

Complementing PNG (piped natural gas) with LNG (liquefied natural gas) is not that much of a diversification. It is the path of least resistance since the existing power plants do not need to be replaced, but it is not a diversification because it is the same fossil fuel, just more expensive, due to the need to : 1. freeze it before shipping 2. ship it over great distances, and 3. re-gasify it before use. The cost of the LNG infrastructure - terminal and tankers - is in the billion-dollar range, and guess who foots the bill eventually?

Besides, we still have to contend with resource depletion. Via LNG, we may "run away" from local resource depletion in Malaysia and Indonesia but nobody can run away from global depletion. The gamble the government is taking is that global depletion arrives later than local depletion.

As for global depletion, the figure of "40 years of reserves left" is often quoted but that is misleading. It implies that problems will only occur in the far future but that may not be true. The problem is not running out, the problem is hitting the halfway point, known as Peak Oil (and Peak Gas), where global production starts to decline and can no longer keep up with demand, causing prices to rise dramatically. According to geologist Dr Colin Campbell of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, the peak date is due to arrive by 2010. That is 2 years before Singapore's LNG terminal is even scheduled to start operations.

The Singapore government deserves credit for pushing ahead with the LNG initiative, though it is hardly an original idea - many consuming countries are also setting up LNG terminals. America is planning 40 terminals. Even Mexico, home to the world's second largest oilfield, has started importing LNG. This tells us something about the sheer level of demand that will be coming up for LNG in the coming years. Singapore is joining a race that has already started.

LNG is going to be freely traded just like crude oil is today. Qatar is setting up an energy trading exchange. The natural gas will, quite naturally, go to the highest bidders. What is quite certain is, at the end point, it is not going to get any cheaper. There is nothing cheap about LNG. It is at best an interim measure while society considers other solutions.

Although the other alternatives for base-load electrical power - nuclear, coal, geothermal, ocean tidal and thermal - are fraught with all kinds of environmental, political and technical risks, they need to be considered well before the global peak date arrives. While making preparations for the LNG terminal, the government should also take a close look into alternative energy sources in the meantime - while there is still time.

- I wrote this on Friday for the Straits Times Forum, though I have been thinking that the use of ASPO's 2010 peak date might have been too much of a contradiction to the government's stand, based on the EIA figures of "40 years of reserves" that officialdom refers to. Well I have my blog, and so it is published out here - for your reading pleasure, and for me to say "I told you so", in time to come :)

I will continue to moniter the news outlets for any evidence to the contrary, but you might know what it is regarding original ideas from the PTB. Furthermore, some sources have given me a good idea of the prevailing thinking regarding some of these matters.

The prescription, I think, calls for a Roscoe Bartlett to arise, a respected elder statesman, on the ruling side, who is not afraid to confront the rest of the government with the energy reality of Peak Oil and Gas, who will drum in the message, again, and again, until it sinks in. Who do you think might fit this description over here? I hope to be surprised. You never know.

Meanwhile, a number of people have advised me to start making "alternative plans". I think that may be good advice. If "they" don't look into "alternatives", "we" will look into our own "alternatives". As any peakoiler will tell you : "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst".

- Update (6 Sep 2006) : The Straits Times has replied to me and informed me that this letter has been published on the online ST Forum.