Job market / stock market outlook 2010

Like the chart says :

This is due to the observed effect that the job market lags the general stock market by around 6 months. The S&P 500 (aka SPX) is used as the benchmark stock index here since it is a broad-based index. Since the SPX has fallen quite a fair bit from its high of 1219.80 in Apr 2010, the clock is now ticking for prospective job-seekers. Now, 6 months is not quite a hard-and-fast rule, it's probably that, give or take a few weeks, and it has proven to be a pretty good rule of thumb historically.

As for the kind of defensive sector referred to, this could be among some of those that I have mentioned earlier, such as government, military, education, healthcare, utilities, consumer staples and so on. But with the sovereign debt crisis in full steam, and given that the contrarian roadmap points to a currency crisis ahead (and possibly worse stuff further afield), it could well be that this time might be different, and not necessarily for the better.

So, if you are thinking of moving to another company or organization, then move fast, move decisively, and move defensively. If not, then be prepared to stay put for some time, because the window of opportunity could well be closing in about 4-5 months' time : batten down the hatches, prepare for a deep dive. As always, I have to mention the possible negation of such a scenario - there are several alternatives : one could be a stunning stock market reversal above 1219 (if you'd believe that), another could be runaway inflation which would skew this indicator, and, lastly, well, this time might really be different.

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