Sunday March 29, 2009

Japan exports fell 49.4% in Feb 2009 to record low on global economic collapse

edition.cnn.com :

Japanese exports tumbled to record lows in Feb 2009. Exports fell 49.4% last month, compared with February 2008. Japan relies heavily on exports such as cars and electronics. But the global recession has slowed consumer demand in the United States, a major market, forcing Japanese companies such as Honda, Toyota, NEC and Hitachi to lay off thousands of employees in recent months. Shipments to the United States plummeted 58% while those to Europe tumbled 54%.

- While the rest of the world is talking about a second half recovery in 2009, perhaps Q3 or maybe towards the end of Q4, the peakoiler community is already looking ahead and the picture that the community is seeing does not look like very much of a recovery and that is putting it mildly. The community is talking about collapse not recovery.

The doomers are already talking about a Stage 2 collapse (out of Orlov's 5 stages). I wouldn't argue too much with that except that I really, really hope we do not have to experience Stage 3 onwards on any scale, global or local, because things tend to get rather messy from that point. It might take 4, 5 years, maybe 10 or even more for any sort of a real recovery, but the alternative is what you might call unthinkable.

See also :

1. Japan exports plummet record 35% as recession deepens
2. Toyota to cut production 54% in Q1 2009 as demand plunges
3. Japan GDP shrinks 12.7% in biggest dive since 1974 as exports collapse
4. Japan exports fell 45.7% in Jan 2009, economic collapse and depression next

(2009-03-29 01:14:11 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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