Monday December 17, 2007

Indonesian firms to build LNG terminal (and why Singapore should go nuclear)

businesstimes.com.sg :

Indonesia's gas distribution firm PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) and electricity firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) plan to jointly build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on Java island, a senior PGN official said on Friday [14 Dec 2007].

Indonesia, Asia-Pacific's only Opec member, is increasing its use of energy sources such as natural gas in a bid to reduce oil use because of high prices and dwindling domestic supply. "We plan to build the LNG terminal in cooperation between PLN and PGN with possible capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year," Sutikno, PGN president director, told reporters.

- Let's just say that that importing natural gas from neighbours with rapidly depleting reserves to generate electricity is not a very good idea. And yup, that's right, Singapore is doing just that. 80% of Singapore's electricity is generated from natural gas coming from our rapidly depleting neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia.

Solar and wind may have a part to play but they are intermittent sources at best. Their capacity factor is typically 20% or less, compared to the 90% or higher, also known as baseload power, that is required to maintain the smooth functioning of society. With currently available technology, the possible sources of baseload power are : oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, and geothermal.

The last two are subject to geographical constraints, and Singapore has neither of these. We do not have the large rivers, nor the height differential, nor the catchment area for hydro. Singapore sits mostly on hard, stable bedrock, which insulates us somewhat from earthquakes but also rules out easily-accessible sources of geothermal energy. The one geothermal source that the locals know of is a small spring in the Sembawang area, which is about big enough to dip your feet in.

At $90 or so, oil is not very far from all-time record highs. And there are much better uses for oil than burning it for electricity - such as powering road transport, and petrochemical products. We've discussed gas above. Singapore is a signatory to the Kyoto climate procotol, thus building new coal plants which emit massive amounts of CO2 is not likely. Unless things get truly desperate, in which case, you never know, we could then say forget climate change, and let's burn coal. But it's not very likely.

You may or may not like it, but if we leave out un-proven, blue-sky solutions, there is just one answer left. The current Prime Minister may have ruled out nuclear power but let's not forget that his father had earlier ruled out casinos as well and we are going to have not just one but two of these. Never say never.

As for the safety radius consideration, Nimitz-class U.S. aircraft carriers have been known to dock at Changi Naval Base from time to time. These are nuclear-powered, are they not? Should one believe that these were towed all the way down the Straits of Malacca with their nuclear reactors shut off? I think not. And for all practical purposes, Changi Airport, a very strategic national asset, is practically next door to the Changi Naval Base.

I wish there were another way. Maybe we should construct a huge underground battery that discharges a few thousand megawatt-hours as needed when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. Perhaps we should start construction of a space elevator on Sentosa island, or on one of the southern islands. Maybe we could build an antenna farm to receive space-based solar power when it launches. Why, we could even try building a spaceport to help launch these space solar satellites! But that is blue-sky, sci-fi style speculation. Would you bet your entire country on a solution nobody else has gotten to work yet?

In the meantime, when our LNG terminal comes online in 2012, just in time for the global bidding war for the remaining natural gas reserves around the world, we'll just have to see what our electricity will be priced like then. If there are no other plans, that will be all the plan we have.

See also :

1. Indonesia's LNG supremacy wanes as Chevron's fields run short
2. Malaysians urged to change energy use patterns
3. Southeast Asian oil output likely to peak by 2013 (and gas output by 2020)

(2007-12-17 23:52:18 SGT) [Energy] Permalink Comments [2]

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