Guangdong, the "unstoppable" factory

In slightly over 10 years Guangdong province, China's "factory of the world", will achieve "modernization", according to a report by Niu Wenyuan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The report defines "modernization" as a level of economic development, social progress, living standards and sustainable development similar to that of a "medium-level developed country". This roughly means that even without the help of a European Union-like structure, Guangdong by 2016 is set to become a Chinese Spain or Ireland.

This is the Beijing view. The Guangdong provincial government is even bolder: it wants modernization as early as 2010 for the Pearl River Delta - the jewel in the crown of the factory of the world. And for the booming city of Shenzhen, the year is now, 2005 ...

- So what's going to stop the "unstoppable" factory? Mathematics. Yup, you heard right, mathematics. As Dr Bartlett reminds us to ask, at what rate of "growth", and for how long? At China's ongoing 9% growth rate, the resulting demand for consumption of basic resources (oil, coal, water, steel, etc) will double in 8 years, quadruple in 16 years, and so on (using the 72 rule of thumb). Can that really be possible? In a realistic world of finite resources, nope, that's not possible.

So, boom it will, until mathematics dictates that it is no longer possible. You can also say physical limits - but it's all in the numbers, anyway.

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