Global warming scenario for SF Bay

If the oceans rise as expected over the next century and nothing is done about it, bay water would slowly flood San Francisco and Oakland airports, cover highways and inundate Treasure Island, the Giants ballpark and parts of Alameda and Silicon Valley. Even now, water managers are fighting global warming. The bay at Fort Point has risen 8 inches over the past century and could rise another 3 feet by the end of this century, according to the last assessment of international climate scientists.

The fixes will cost millions and tough decisions will have to be made on what to save from flooding and what to let go. The harder choices will be made in some areas on the bay shoreline where it would be cheaper to remove low-value development and replace it with flood-absorbing wetlands. In the delta, planned new development might have to be stopped rather than face the cost of trying to protect it from inevitable flooding. Eventually, it may take the insurance industry's refusing to write policies in coastal and low-lying areas to stop development.

At this point, there is no comprehensive estimate of the worth of the properties at risk from a 3-foot rise in bay waters, including the airports, Treasure Island, parts of Alameda, parts of the Peninsula and San Francisco's sewerage system. In 1990, in the first - and only - assessment of the costs of rising bay, the Pacific Institute in Oakland determined that a 1-meter, or 39-inch, rise would threaten $48 billion in residential, commercial and industrial property. The cost of constructing levees and seawalls, raising buildings, freeways and railroads and replenishing beaches would exceed $940 million, not including the $100 million-a-year maintenance costs.

(2007-02-10 00:25:22 SGT) [Env] Permalink

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