Sunday February 12, 2006

Global warming: passing the 'tipping point'

peakoil.com -> news.independent.co.uk :

A crucial global warming "tipping point" for the Earth has already been passed, with devastating consequences. Research commissioned by The Independent reveals that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has now crossed a threshold beyond which really dangerous climate change is likely to be unstoppable. The implication is that some of global warming's worst predicted effects, from destruction of ecosystems to increased hunger and water shortages for billions of people, cannot now be avoided, whatever we do.

At the moment, global mean temperatures have risen to about 0.6 degrees above the pre-industrial era - and worrying signs of climate change, such as the rapid melting of the Arctic ice in summer, are already increasingly evident. But a rise to 2 degrees would be far more serious. By that point it is likely that the Greenland ice sheet will already have begun irreversible melting, threatening the world with a sea-level rise of several metres. Agricultural yields will have started to fall, not only in Africa but also in Europe, the US and Russia.

The Government's conference on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, held at the UK Met Office in Exeter a year ago, highlighted a clear threshold in the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which should not be surpassed if the 2 degree point was to be avoided with "relatively high certainty". This was for the concentration of CO2 and other gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, to stay below 400ppm (parts per million); the "equivalent concentration" of CO2 should remain below that level.

We asked one of the world's leading experts on the effects of greenhouse gases on climate, Professor Keith Shine, head of the meteorology department at the University of Reading, to calculate it precisely. Using the latest available figures (for 2004), his calculations show the equivalent concentration of C02 is now 425ppm. The tipping point warned about by the Government is already behind us.

See also :

1. Environment in crisis: 'We are past the point of no return'
2. Cloudy with a chance of chaos
3. Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age

(2006-02-12 23:21:16 SGT) [Env] Permalink

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