Environment in crisis: 'We are past the point of no return'

The world has already passed the point of no return for climate change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive, according to James Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who conceived the idea of Gaia - the Earth which keeps itself fit for life. In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too late.

His concerns have increased as evidence of a warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low point. Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. He is calling on governments to begin large-scale preparations for surviving - in his own phrase - "a hell of a climate", likely to be in Europe up to 8C hotter than it is today.

Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol - a layer of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern hemisphere - the product of the world's industry. This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which is known as "global dimming" and is thought to be holding the global temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap upwards.

Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a question mark over the very habitability of the Earth. Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may become unviable over huge areas of the world; water supplies for millions or even billions may fail. Rising sea levels will destroy coastal areas in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh. Environmental refugees will overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope. Modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans last summer.

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