Energy expert warns of tough times ahead

Oil prices have risen sharply and gasoline prices are expected to follow after this week's shutdown of one of North America's biggest oil fields. Energy expert Matthew Simmons, the country's top investment banker for the energy industry, says it's a reminder of how fragile the oil supply really is. Simmons says the world's oil supply will start shrinking in the coming years, even as demand for oil and natural gas continues to grow - that means a real risk of shortages. So he says Americans need to change their habits, and learn to conserve much more.

"We need to .. launch a research effort the likes of which we have never done before to go on a quest to find new sources of energy that don't exist today," Simmons said. Among the other changes he advocates: moving more fright by rail and by water, to make less use of trucks and have people work closer to where they live. 70% of America's energy, Simmons says, is used for transportation.

Comments:

Simmons is a twit, and when he opens his mouth to misrepresent whatever his most current hardon is ( or whichever way he needs the market to swing to the best interests of his clients ) he ends up sounding as silly as Ruppert or Savinar.

Posted by RGR on August 13, 2006 at 11:54 PM SGT #

I will leave the above comment up, lol. The poster might not realize that using words like "twit" and "hardon" might not come across as a very good choice of words to the (rather intelligent) audience which lurks here.

So then, what do *you* propose? (Or to put it another way - what is *your* vested interest?) Tell us, we are curious to know.

Posted by lowem on August 14, 2006 at 12:49 AM SGT #

Are you kidding me? Intelligient audience which lists, among its Energy Reality links, dieoff,Savinar,ASPO and the Energy Bulletin?

If Simmons releases where he puts his investments, and stops screwing up his intepretation of SPE papers ( RocDoc at PO.com has done a reasonable job of dispatching the idea that Simmons can read and comprehend ANYTHING in an SPE paper ) then maybe quoting him as a source won't look as silly as it is to those of us who know better.

What do I propose related to what? Debunking pseudo science on the level of an "energy analyst"

Posted by RGR on August 14, 2006 at 03:39 AM SGT #

Cool, then what *is* your point? That you have much better information? That you, instead of all the folks who've been giving speeches out there, know better? If you really do, that's great. Pray tell.

Come to think of it, I might want to take down the link to FTW. But I will keep the link to LATOC. Savinar may not be the very best person to talk about peak oil but his site did introduce quite a few people to the concept.

As for ASPO, you have an issue with them? Let's see your forecast for the peak date then. Give us some models, based perhaps on detailed global field-by-field data? Hopefully you have in your hands some state secrets regarding the Ghawar field? That would be very nice.

And, thanks for putting up with the "calculator" here. Most people don't bother.

Posted by lowem on August 14, 2006 at 09:44 AM SGT #

Where to begin. Better information than Simmons? I don't know. Simmons problem isn't his information, its his misrepresentation of SPE papers to a given end, while not mentioning ANYWHERE that I have ever noticed what he actually tells his paying customers versus the arm waving hysteria he tries to generate...while not mentioning where he's betting HIS money. If those obvious facts aren't bad enough, go to PO.com and see what RocDoc did to him in relation to the SPE papers.

I have no doubt Savinar and Kuntsler and Ruppert introduce people to PO, they HAVE to to sell their story. No story here beyond they latched onto PO to build one doomsday/anti Bush scenario or another.

ASPO has a different problem. They have called Peak before, been wrong, refused to admit it ( I assume there was some Campbell influence there if only because he did the same stunt in 1990 ) and are now rapidly rewriting whatever models/programs/dreams they used to calculate their newest version of Peak.

As far as models and my estimates of Peak, I have a different opinion. My opinion is a Peak date estimate simply doesn't matter.

Notice this is a different concept than ASPO and Campbell getting it wrong consistently for 16 years now, let alone the technical flaws which I am capable of discussing at length, in their work or Hubberts. Modelling based on bad assumptions and silly precepts gives bad and silly answers.

Peak Oil doesn't matter because the worse it gets, the more it becomes an economic problem, and not a crude oil pumping volume one.

And while I hardly have any "state secrets", unlike Simmons I CAN read SPE papers, and have field by field production data available for everything IHS sells for the entire planet. Including Ghawar. Interesting that their reserve increases have been matched by production...a somewhat interesting fact which blows up the entire "screw with reserves in the 80's" arguement which people with no information continue trying to foist off on amateurs.

My information is both field by field AND reservoir by reservoir. Plus I have individual well production for the entire United States, and everything Saskatchewan and Alberta have put together over the past half century. Oh....and I have proprietary information from EIA as well.

And my area of expertise is currently in reserve growth. Which is why its easy to blow up anything ASPO and Campbell say. As though them being wrong for nearly 2 decades now isn't enough.

Posted by RGR on August 14, 2006 at 10:34 AM SGT #

Sounds good. So ... what do you intend to do with the information you have? If, as you say, Simmons, Campbell and the rest are wrong, then, well ... what? What does your detailed information tell you?

In short, do you have a short summary, a different conclusion regarding Peak Oil perhaps, for the rest of us, who of course, are non-geologists and non-experts in this area?

I suspect that the reality lies somewhere between Star Trek (cornucopians) and Mad Max (doomers). Perhaps you can share what you think about that.

Posted by lowem on August 14, 2006 at 03:12 PM SGT #

I suspect reality lies between Mad Max and Star Trek as well.

I consider Peak Oil to be a possibly turbulent time period while mitigation takes place, but not much else.

I professionally object to people misrepresenting the information from my industry to sell books about the Second Coming or whatever other silly Doomer scenario they are trying to push on their friends at cocktail parties.

Posted by RGR on August 15, 2006 at 08:24 AM SGT #