Monday February 13, 2006

Deffeyes : Peak Oil Date passed on 16 Dec 2005

peakoil.com (thread) -> princeton.edu :

Kenneth Deffeyes :

In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.

The world peak would happen when 1.0065 trillion barrels have been produced (half of 2.013). The cumulative world production at the end of 2004 was 0.9812 trillion barrels and at the end of 2005 it was 1.00748 trillion. During the year, we passed the halfway point. The graph shows the date of the crossover: December 16, 2005 :

Since we have passed the peak without initiating major corrective measures, we now have to rely primarily on methods that we have already engineered. Energy conservation is by far the most important. Initiatives that are already engineered and ready to go are biodiesel from palm oil, coal gasification (for both gaseous and liquid fuels), high-efficiency diesel automobiles, and revamping our food supply. Every little bit helps, but even if wind energy continues its success it will still be a little bit.

That's it. I can now refer to the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over. I'm now an historian.

See also :

1. Peak Oil & Thanksgiving Day 2005

(2006-02-13 13:31:03 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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