Defense spending cuts could kill Lockheed F-22, Boeing FCS and other weapons programs

The United States would trim US missile-defense spending, cancel some big-ticket weapons programs and buy more arms for fighting insurgents, under a 2010 budget plan. Defense Secretary Robert Gates proposed to stop buying further F-22 fighters and kill a planned $13 billion new presidential helicopter. He also would scale down the Boeing-led potential $159 billion Army Future Combat Systems. Also canceled would be a projected $26 billion "Transformational Satellite" program under bidding by Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Gates' proposal would cut missile defense spending by $1.4 billion; end production of Lockheed Martin's F-22 fighter at 187 aircraft; scrap a $15 billion competition for new rescue helicopters, buy 31 more of Boeing's F/A-18 fighter jets in 2010, and boost funding for the Lockheed F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. It would revamp the way the Navy builds destroyers and scrap a new cruiser program. The proposal would add funding for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's) and other programs designed to thwart insurgents.

- That is a big bunch of very deep cuts. Over a year back, I observed the Democrat momentum building over in the US and concluded that it might not be as good as it was before for US military/defence spending. My thinking at the time was that, yes, the Republicans have always been well known to support these big weapons platform projects but the Democrats were at least known to keep most existing projects running while they might perhaps slow down somewhat on new acquisitions.

In retrospect, the extent of these spending cuts should not have been too much of a surprise, perhaps in the same way the stock market crash in Q4 2008 should not have been too much of a surprise. The only surprise would be the breadth and depth of the thing. It's one of those intractable problems with forward projections, even if we were to apply systems thinking concepts. You can put together a collection of relevant trends and see some things coming your way but you cannot predict exactly how much, exactly when or exactly where. Unless you have a bona fide crystal ball, the detailed specifics (how bad the crash, how fast, how widespread) can be quite impossible to predict.

It's quite a waste actually. The Lockheed F-22 is a great fighter jet, and it gave me some measure of pride to have once been an employee of a small subsidiary of that very company that makes them. But then, the F-22 may have been the right tool for the wrong war. Short of somebody starting a real hot shooting war all over again, what we might be witnessing could well be economic, financial and trade wars going forward. On the other hand, you never really know. Once we really get into the swing of things and if/when they really crank up the resource wars, then these weapons systems might finally get a chance to perform as they were designed to. Until then.

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