Chinese New Year : 2 billion trips in China

In the 40 days and 40 nights bracketing the Feb. 9 Lunar New Year, Chinese officials estimate that passengers will make a total of nearly 2 billion trips by car, bus, train, boat or airplane.

It is probably the world's worst holiday traffic nightmare.

The strain is so great on China's transportation system that leaders are rethinking what is still a relatively new cultural phenomenon - the vacation ... however, the proposals floated so far appear unlikely to change the break for Lunar New Year, also known as Spring Festival. It is the most traditional and cherished Chinese holiday, a time when the country essentially reverts to its original form and the tens of millions of people who have left villages for cities return home for family reunions and celebrations.

It is also a human stampede from which few cities in this country of 1.3 billion people are spared ... the glut of passengers seems to overwhelm whatever steps the government takes. The Ministry of Railways has increased the number of trains nationwide by a third and Chinese airlines have added 1,000 extra flights. In Guangzhou, officials opened an online train ticketing system. Still, state media reported that the demand for train tickets outstripped supply by a 4-to-1 ratio ..

The Ministry of Railways, sensing a public relations opportunity, has called for more funding to update the system. It also has increased ticket prices for the holiday period by as much as 20 percent, ostensibly to drive down demand but driving up profits in the process.

- Well, it's tradition. Anything to get home and sit down for that annual re-union dinner. Legendary and heroic efforts to book air/land/sea tickets and all that. It has got to be a legendary amount of energy to haul 2 billion butts too, and that's not counting the "overseas" Chinese in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and elsewhere.

- At 400% oversubscription levels, they could double the prices and people will grumble quite a bit, but will still pay up.

- What might it take to quench such demand? At least a quadrupling of prices, perhaps 10x. Which would be oil prices of $200, $300, $400 per barrel. That would be a post-peak system shock. But not just yet.

- Meanwhile, a Happy Chinese New Year. I will be part of a (much smaller) exodus, from Singapore to Malaysia - lowem.log will be back after the holidays.

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