China could overtake US as biggest emissions culprit by Nov 2007

China may overtake the United States as the world's biggest source of greenhouse gases within months, one of the world's leading energy analysts predicted. Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, said the country's economic growth had been so fast in 2006 and 2007 that the historic global shift of climate-changing emissions from west to east which was previously predicted for 2009 or 2010 could now happen by November. At current rates, it would be emitting twice as much CO2 as the world's 26 richest countries together within 25 years.

China has signed up to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, but, as a developing country, it does not have a cap on its emissions. China's breakneck industrial growth, which has been running at nearly 10% a year for four years and was reported to have increased unexpectedly to 11% in the first three months of 2007, has been fuelled almost entirely by burning coal. The most populated country in the world has the world's second largest coal reserves, estimated to be over 185 billion tonnes, and 70% of all its greenhouse emissions can be traced to coal.

China has made serious attempts to stem the growth of its emissions. It demands far higher emission standards from its vehicles than the US, and plans to produce 16% of all its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, while reducing the energy intensity of its economy by a further 20%.

China is well aware of the probable effects that climate change will have on the country. According to a report published by its government, change will mean larger deserts, more severe droughts and reduced water availability, as well as declining crops and increased spread of disease. The country is also vulnerable to sea level rises and the shrinking of glaciers which provide much of its river water. However, it is widely believed in economic circles that the country should focus on development first before cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

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