Camera market to peak in 2010 : IDC

Digital camera sales will grow 8 percent to hit 114 million units in 2007, but the market will peak in 2010, IDC forecast. The digital camera market is saturating as the electronic devices replace earlier film models, and already camera makers have begun emphasizing products and features for customers who are upgrading or want multiple cameras.

But even emerging markets will saturate soon, IDC forecast, and the number of units shipped will decline after 2010. "We predict a slowdown, driven by a complete saturation of all regions, creating 2 percent negative growth in 2011," said IDC analyst Christopher Chute. But cameras should withstand the arrival of cell phones that can take snapshots, IDC forecast.

Comments:

It'll be interesting to see how hard the sales "hit the wall". I was stunned at how quickly things collapsed in the DVD player market.

From Mark Schubin's "Monday Memo", some "year-to-date" and "10-week average" figures on US DVD player sales from 2004: (http://www.digitaltelevision.com/mondaymemo/mlist/)

February 10, 2004: "up 35.4% over the same period in 2003. My ten-week running average was up 30.4%. The growth rate continues to amaze me!"

May 3, 2004: "up 8.8% over the same period in 2003 -- single digit growth! My ten-week running average was up 11.6%."

May 10, 2004: "up 6.4% over the same period in 2003 -- even lower than last week. My ten-week running average was up just 5.5%."

May 18, 2004: "up 7% over the same period in 2003. My ten-week running average was up 5.8%. The single-digit growth rate seems firm."

May 26, 2004: "up 1.9% over the same period in 2003. My ten-week running average was DOWN 7.9%. The glory days of double-digit growth seem gone forever."

February 3, 2005: "for 2004 were down 9.1% from 2003. My ten-week running average was down 32.1%."

In the space of a few weeks in mid-2004, DVD player sales went from more than 10% increase year-over-year to more than 10% decrease, and just a few months later the numbers had become abysmal.

Posted by Doug on May 29, 2007 at 02:11 PM SGT #