Brazil is the next economic (and political) superpower

Times are changing in Brazil and it is no longer inconceivable that Brazil will emerge in the next few decades alongside India and China as one of the world's economic superpowers. Brazil under Lula has recently repaid its debts to the International Monetary Fund and the Paris Club well ahead of schedule. It is running a fast growing surplus on its trade account, its exports are booming, growing at a faster rate than China's. Its economy is growing steadily at around 3 to 3.5 percent. This is happening in a country that is the world's fifth largest both in population and size. Moreover, Brazil is home to the world's largest tropical forest and Brazil has the world's largest reservoirs of freshwater and ample hydro electric power. It is self-sufficient in oil and gas.

Brazil has a head start on India and China. It has been developing in its sometime madcap way for over 100 years. Between 1960 and 1980 Brazil doubled its per capita income. Its income per head is almost $8000 (in purchasing power parity). This compares with China's $4,500 and India's $3000. At the very least Brazil will outgrow Canada, pace Russia and leave Mexico way behind.

Brazil has a good chance of emerging as the world's first economic superpower without nuclear weapons. It hasn't been to war for 135 years. It is the most tolerant of countries, one that never had Jim Crow laws and which abolished capital punishment in 1885. If Brazil succeeds it can only make the world a better place.

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