ASPO newsletter #58 released

ASPO has released the Oct 2005 edition of its newsletter. The biggest news is that the forecast of the date of peak oil has been moved from 2007 to 2010 :

A detailed revision of the deepwater evaluation has been made on the basis of new information covering the world's fields ... this has an impact on the overall model, as illustrated in the Table on Page 2, shifting the peak of All Liquids from 2007 to 2010.

- As might be expected, the forummers have been having a field day with this announcement. Various views include the sarcastic kind - "hooray, we're saved!", some criticised Colin Campbell's track record to date, while others defended it by pointing out, rightly, that with incomplete data it's difficult to make any sort of a prediction.

My opinion is that ASPO is doing fine with what they're attempting to do, anyone else wants to say otherwise could go publish their own website, release a competing newsletter and let history be the judge of how better or worse they fare.

Well, more time to prepare then (perhaps). Anyway there's a whole bunch of factors at work - new discoveries, fields coming online, politics, war, upstream disruptions (rigs / refineries / pipelines / shipping), demand growth, demand destruction, impact of technology (affecting consumption, conversion, extraction, etc), and dozens more not even mentioned yet. Anyone attempting to make a public prediction of the Peak Oil date has got to be either foolish or courageous - or perhaps a little bit of both :)

(2005-10-06 13:55:22 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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