Saturday June 02, 2007

Arctic dreams

energybulletin.net :

Back in October of 2005, the New York Times announced that the Arctic will be the next big oil & gas province to be exploited by humankind in As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams of Treasure Abound. The Times gave this news a mixed review, and deservedly so. Exploration & production in the Arctic represents an unusual climate change positive feedback loop in which humans participate. In the northern polar regions, the longer term process works like this -

1. Humans burn fossil fuels to release the buried solar energy stored therein
2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise and the natural "greenhouse effect" is amplified
3. The oceans warm and ice melts
4. Melting ice opens up new prospective oil & gas provinces for exploration & production
5. Humans burn more fossil fuels ... and back to (2)

The Wood Mackenzie/Fugro Robertson study forecast that production flows from all the northern polar regions will eventually peak at 3 million b/d at least two decades from now. Natural gas flows may reach 5 million barrels of oil equivalent in the same timeframe. Given the ballpark estimate of future Arctic oil flows, the technological and logistical challenges, and the timeframe, it is safe to say that E&P in the Arctic has no bearing whatsoever on the question of a near-term peak in world oil production.

There is no convincing evidence that the production of oil & gas resources in the Arctic basins is germane to a peak in world oil production in any timeframe one might care about. The peak flow rate for the entire region is estimated at 3 million b/d, a bit less than 60% of what Ghawar, the world's largest oil field, has produced on a daily basis for many decades. The rate of warming in the high northern latitudes and uncertainty about the size of the resource base in these polar areas serve only as distractions that may prevent the public from arriving at an honest assessment of the future oil suppy.

See also :

1. The Arctic: Oil's last frontier
2. Scientists shocked as Arctic polar route emerges
3. Polar bears drown, islands appear in Arctic thaw
4. Scramble to unlock Arctic's energy potential
6. Arctic meltdown = oil, shipping & fish

(2007-06-02 11:40:14 SGT) [Env] Permalink

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