1500 days until the Peak - Chris Skrebowski at ASPO 5

Peak oil is the point where further expansion of production becomes impossible. Peak oil is when flows can't meet required demand. What do current high oil prices tell us? The market is saying 'send more oil!'. High prices have failed to bring new supply to meet this demand. In the Third World, high oil prices are already having a huge impact. Demand is now starting to come down to reach supply. So why are supplies peaking? We are not finding enough new oil. In 2005 we found 5 billion barrels, and we used 30 billion, a ratio of 6:1.

According to this year's BP statistics, OECD production peaked in 1997, non-OPEC production peaked in 2002, North America and Mexico peaked in 2000, and are in a 19.2% decline. The North Sea peaked in 1999 and is already down by 20%. Norway peaked in 2001. The top 5 decliners now are the US, Norway, UK, Syria and Iran. Depletion is running at 1.2 mnb/d and rising. Enhanced recovery makes no big difference. 90% of known reserves are already in production.

The most likely Peak Oil date is late 2010, give or take 2 years each side. We need a mixture of biofuels, efficiency, heavy oil and tar sands and a nuclear renewal. Peak will occur between 2010 and 2011, at 92-94 million barrels a day. We are still in denial of this, but the fact is that we only have 1,500 days until the peak. The new EIA report says the same thing, although couched in caveats and provisos.

(2006-08-29 13:03:56 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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