Japan GDP contracted record 14.2% in Q1 2009 on exports fall

Japan's GDP shrank at a record 14.2% annual pace in Q1 2009, the worst contraction since the government began keeping records in 1955. Demand from China's $586 billion stimulus is helping to stabilize exports. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's record stimulus spending has led to rising consumer confidence; sales of electronics are up 20% since the government introduced a program to buying of eco-friendly products. Tax breaks on energy-efficient vehicles have helped Honda post higher sales.

Still, manufacturers are only using about half their productive capacity because of the collapse in global demand. Exports have fallen by more than a third from last year and managers are under pressure to cut jobs and delay investments, which could cause the economy to start shrinking again as the effects of the stimulus wanes.

- Like Jim Puplava says on his show, "less bad is the new good". The GDP figures are every bit as horrible as the contrarian community said they would be. Countries are beginning to hit the 10% GDP contraction figure that demarcates Second Great Depression territory, but if you have been paying any bit of attention to the news these days, it sounds like that is in the past already, consigned to history as the "green shoots of recovery" burst forth.

Me, I'd give it a year or so. This time next year. Say around May to June 2010. From what I gather so far, chances are this time period might be a good time for the "Second L" to come down. The second downleg, the Double L theory, call it what you will. Then we'll see how the GDP figures are at that time. Only if these "green shoots" take root, then I'd be somewhat impressed. Keep posted.

(2009-06-16 23:26:02 SGT) [Biz] Permalink Comments [1]

Main | Next day (Jun 16, 2009) »

Most popular blog postings on lowem.log :

1. Singapore MRT rail network length to double by 2020
2. 2010 Nissan Leaf electric car specifications : 107hp, 24KWh lithium-ion batteries, 100-mile range
3. Live spot gold price quotes chart on COMEX
4. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option
5. AVG Anti-Virus Free Edition 2011 direct download link
6. Real-time live gold and silver price quotes chart on COMEX
7. Singapore electric vehicles : Government agencies EMA and LTA to study EV introduction
8. Book review : Shut Down by William Flynn

Featured articles on lowem.log :

1. Book review : Shut Down by William Flynn
2. Singapore electric cars testing starts with 9 electric vehicles
3. Honda, GS Yuasa JV to make lithium-ion batteries for 2010/2011 Honda Civic Hybrid
4. 2010 Honda Civic Hybrid preliminary specifications released
5. 2010 Honda CR-Z hybrid, 2010 Honda Fit/Jazz hybrid models confirmed
6. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option
7. NYMEX crude oil recovers from $32.40 low after 2.2 mbpd OPEC production cut announced
8. Singapore : Nuclear power not ruled out